The Washington Post
today has a piece on the
floor seating at the Republican National Convention. In their piece they ask whether states with
good floor position at the convention are more likely to vote for Romney in
November. I’m not sure this is a serious
question, and it’s not clear that the Post is posing a serious question—I suppose
news outlets have to fill their convention coverage somehow. The evidence they
show (e.g. floor maps for 2012 and 2008) is pretty weak. However, it’s worth
noting that there is some
evidence about floor seating positions in legislatures affecting the votes
of legislators. In the legislative case, there is a causal mechanism—the social
interaction of legislators. In the party
convention case, there is no logical causal mechanism between the location of a
state delegation on the convention floor and the behavior of voters back home
on Election Day.
The more interesting part of the Post’s piece, from a party
politics perspective, is the allocation of seats to states that held early
primaries. The Republican party had
hinted that they would punish some states for holding early primaries (e.g.,
Florida, New Hampshire, Michigan, South Carolina, Arizona), and that “punishment”
might come in the form of a “bad” floor location for the state delegations at
the convention. Rather, these states received good floor positions, and the
early primary sanction has come in the form of restricted voting rights for
these delegations (according to the Post only half their votes count). There are a number of ways to interpret this
sanction, but my gut tells me that the RNC didn’t really want to come down hard
on these states and the rule only emphasizes that delegate voting at
conventions is relatively meaningless.
As Seth has previous noted, conventions are about
celebration, activating your base, following traditions, hype, and advertising—not
so much about real decision making. The lack
of a substantial consequence for the early primary states suggests that the GOP
is not all that upset about the increased attention on their selection process
that happens as a result of increasingly early primaries.