Sanders is not like Trump. Sanders is like Rand Paul.

Donald Trump: You shouldn't take him seriously, because no one else does.

By Hans Noel

As two fringe candidates light up the polls this summer, it is tempting to find similarities. And there are similarities between Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders. Both are experiencing surges in the polls, and no serious political observer thinks either will be their party’s nominee. 

The differences are greater.

I don’t just mean that Donald Trump is a standard deviation more loud-mouthed and delusional than most buffoons. When you think of if that way, it’s unfair to compare anyone to Trump. The last time someone with no experience in government was nominated for president was 75 years ago, and even Wendell Willkie had been actually active in politics for much of his life. Trump is a reality show character, not a politician. Trump's closest analogy is Bill + Opus 1984.

Trump’s campaign is about Trump. Sanders is about an ideology.

I don’t know what makes Donald Trump tick, but he’s not tapping into some sort of movement. As with most things he does, this is about him. Bernie Sanders, on the other hand, is championing a set of issues. Sure, anyone who runs for president has to have an ego, Sanders included. But Sanders’ run is driven by a set of progressives disappointed in Barack Obama and fearful that Hillary Clinton would be more of the same. Sanders stepped right in to pick up the support of those who really wanted Elizabeth Warren to run. Sanders, Warren, any class warrior will do. There are echoes of the way the conservative movement pressured Barry Goldwater to run.

At the same time, Sanders is shaping that movement. Sanders accepts the label “socialist,” but he’s not really a socialist, by a strict definition. He is not for the collective ownership of much of anything. He’s a social democrat, in the European sense. Social Democratic parties believe in a capitalist free market, but they believe that government intervention should reign in that market when it has negative consequences. Call this socialism if you want, but it’s a particular kind of socialism — the kind that is very close to modern liberalism or progressivism in the United States. Sanders’ candidacy gives that ideology a face, and that will shape what the progressive movement wants.

All of which sounds a lot like Rand Paul, and Ron Paul before him. The Pauls are libertarians, but they too are a particular stripe of libertarian. Like most American libertarians, they care more about economic restrictions on corporations than they do about social issues. Both are pro-life, and neither is a champion of gay marriage. This is not to say they are hypocrites. There are many ways to parse libertarianism, and the Paul way is the way that is most popular in the United States. Here, too, the leaders have helped to define the ideology. 

The only way Trump has changed the national discourse is take the word “classy” and reinterpret it to mean “not classy."

Trump has literally no chance of winning. Sanders has very little chance.

The Republican Party is not going to nominate Donald Trump. Right now, the party is scrambling to find a way to keep him from participating in the debates. They are not undecided on his candidacy. He may be doing OK in some polls (20 percent may be first, but it’s not winning), but he is also hated within the party. In even the weakest reading of our book on presidential nominations, party leaders have some agency, at least enough to stop a buffoon. Trump is about to prove that having a lot of money, and even leading in early polls, does not predict a victory. (In that way, he's a boon to political science.)

Stopping an ideological movement is not so easy. Most Democratic leaders are lining up behind Clinton. But once you strip away the baggage of the word “socialist,” a lot of what Sanders wants is what other Democrats want. Many Democrats may differ with him, especially on priorities and on political feasibility. But many Democrats do want what Sanders is pushing. The progressive wing of the Democratic Party is not as powerful as the Tea Party wing of the Republican Party is, but it is real. They won't get what they want in this cycle. Even the Tea Party might not get exactly what it wants this cycle, and the Tea Party has much more influence. But Sanders represents a significant fraction of the party. 

Again, this seems like Rand Paul, or Ted Cruz. They are unlikely to get the nomination, but they are sitting senators, and that alone should make us take them seriously as candidates.

So, it’s fair to say that neither Sanders nor Trump will be their parties’ candidates, but that’s about the only thing they have in common.