tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8925493305476056067.post7644880748327576245..comments2023-10-15T05:33:35.272-04:00Comments on The Mischiefs of Faction: Is there a "six-year itch"?Seth Maskethttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17178036016555722068noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8925493305476056067.post-12447817620921341712012-12-12T14:44:19.777-05:002012-12-12T14:44:19.777-05:00Professor Masket, I think your dot for 'Obama1...Professor Masket, I think your dot for 'Obama10' is actually 'Obama12' - I have RDPI for the 2010 period as 2.18% and for 2012 as 0.90%.Jimhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17775174720796915716noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8925493305476056067.post-3232911852534877262012-12-11T13:02:08.074-05:002012-12-11T13:02:08.074-05:00Steven, as David T correctly notes, exposure is an...Steven, as David T correctly notes, exposure is an important issue here, and a number of forecast models include measurements of how many seats the majority party currently controls. The Democrats are less likely to experience huge losses in 2014 simply because they lost so many competitive districts in 2010 and didn't gain that many of them back in 2012. It's not entirely reversion to the mean by a long shot -- the economy and presidential popularity matter -- but that's an important facet of midterms. Seth Maskethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17178036016555722068noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8925493305476056067.post-25645085044583714152012-12-11T10:13:35.077-05:002012-12-11T10:13:35.077-05:00In 1966 it was only partly a matter of the Vietnam...In 1966 it was only partly a matter of the Vietnam war starting to take its toll on Johnson. It was also the fact that the landslide of 1964 had resulted in many Democrats winning House seats which they could not retain in a more normal year.<br />And note that in 1986 the Republicans hardly lost any seats in the House; they did poorly in the Senate but that was because a large number of GOP senators had won very narrowly in 1980 and were now up for re-election.David Thttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09260587086663631888noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8925493305476056067.post-1384095516496723802012-12-10T20:40:01.939-05:002012-12-10T20:40:01.939-05:00Something I've wondered is whether midterm ele...Something I've wondered is whether midterm election results are entirely explained by reversion to the mean. If a Democrat was elected President two years ago, it was, presumably, a good year for Democrats generally, and the Democrats presumably picked up some seats that they wouldn't have in an average year. If this year is a less Democratic year, some of them might well lose (for Senate elections, this should only hold at a six-year lag).<br /><br />I assume someone has studied this, and if they haven't, it shouldn't be hard, but I've never gotten around to it.<br />Stevenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06090531523789747157noreply@blogger.com