tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8925493305476056067.post781821620114500658..comments2023-10-15T05:33:35.272-04:00Comments on The Mischiefs of Faction: Is The Realignment Nigh?Seth Maskethttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17178036016555722068noreply@blogger.comBlogger9125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8925493305476056067.post-68753186477082829692013-10-16T19:15:18.877-04:002013-10-16T19:15:18.877-04:00The teabaggers won't split from the GOP, becau...The teabaggers won't split from the GOP, because it would expose how little support they actually have in the general population.Seselhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05335099566005942354noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8925493305476056067.post-15613628958428546012013-10-12T10:26:36.073-04:002013-10-12T10:26:36.073-04:00Matt's point is important. There were no ball...Matt's point is important. There were no ballot access laws until 1888. Nowadays we have severe laws, including Georgia, which has kept all parties (other than the Dem & Rep Parties) off its ballot in regularly-scheduled elections for US House since the current law was written in 1943). Also we have Connecticut's public funding law for state campaigns, in which the Dem and Rep nominees automatically get public funding if they have a small number of donors, but independent candidates and the nominees of new parties, besides needing the same number of small donors, must submit a petition of 20% of the last vote cast to get full public funding, and 10% to get any public funding at all. Lowell Weicker testified in court that if this law had existed in 1990 (when he won as a new party candidate) he could not have won.richardwingerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13470637786166917187noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8925493305476056067.post-86716484864896879352013-10-11T15:17:32.502-04:002013-10-11T15:17:32.502-04:00This whole shutdown and debt ceiling debacle tells...This whole shutdown and debt ceiling debacle tells me that a good portion of the Tea Party are not good at strategic thinking.phathttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07711722602776883761noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8925493305476056067.post-33412895453188634072013-10-11T12:49:33.587-04:002013-10-11T12:49:33.587-04:00Nice post, Seth.
Two things I'm surprised you...Nice post, Seth.<br /><br />Two things I'm surprised you didn't touch on:<br /><br />1. The relative legal and institutional insulation of the two major parties now relative to the 1850's. Everything from ballot access to campaign finance makes it harder for bolters to make late-breaking credible moves away from the major parties.<br /><br />2. The existence of the a moderately successful 3rd party in the run up to the dam breaking in 1854 --- the Free Soil party --- that was ideologically similar to the eventual realignment. The 2nd party system collapse after the K-N Act, but the cracks were visible for a long time. I suspect we'll see *much* more agitation of this sort before we see an actual division/crack=up.<br /><br />MattMatthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17196918524743485636noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8925493305476056067.post-55396240344967444382013-10-11T11:03:19.909-04:002013-10-11T11:03:19.909-04:00"Tea Party affiliates will get much of the bl..."Tea Party affiliates will get much of the blame, and this may represent an opportunity for the more traditional establishment types to reassert themselves..."<br /><br />Which could lead to the Tea Party taking it's toys and leaving the GOP. The reasons why the "traditional types" never fully rebuke this faction is that it needs their votes to win elections. The conservative base has shown itself less and less willing to be controlled. The "establishment" is trying to ride a bucking bronco. It doesn't want to let go, but it might not be able to hold on for much longer.<br /><br />It would have been interesting to see how a Romney presidency might have played out. Would the Tea Party have continued to make trouble or would the unifying leadership that a president can provide to a party have brought them to heel?Philip Amlerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02477410318709791743noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8925493305476056067.post-40241963218832920412013-10-11T10:39:05.390-04:002013-10-11T10:39:05.390-04:00You could spin out a scenario in which the GOP lea...You could spin out a scenario in which the GOP leadership makes deals with Obama on the shutdown, budget, etc., that the Tea Party folks find totally unacceptable. Some of them bolt and run as third party candidates in 2014. That could certainly cost the Republicans a number of seats. I'm not sure how likely this is, especially since a) the GOP leadership is aware of the scenario and does what it can to avoid it, and b) Tea Party members can actually be pretty strategic and don't want to throw the House to Democrats.Seth Maskethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17178036016555722068noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8925493305476056067.post-52230643360749515662013-10-11T10:12:44.584-04:002013-10-11T10:12:44.584-04:00If the odds of a realignment are long, how about t...If the odds of a realignment are long, how about the odds for a third party? The Dixiecrats did it in 1948, and Wallace did it in 1968. I think a third party would hurt the Repubs more in 2016 than it did the previous times, but otherwise, there is an awful lot of alienation and rage within the GOP. Geoff Ghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17117921607237662932noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8925493305476056067.post-19875643052679526672013-10-11T07:42:16.088-04:002013-10-11T07:42:16.088-04:00The key, I would think, is whether the Democrats r...The key, I would think, is whether the Democrats reach out in serious ways to the business faction. In many ways they been doing that since the 1990s and, despite claims to the opposite, still are doing so (think the bailout). But at the end of the day, this faction of the GOP is practical--their money and support goes to the people in office--which will stall or prevent any great shift. At least that's how seems to me.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17585253697621836700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8925493305476056067.post-67746182744075621962013-10-11T00:12:52.786-04:002013-10-11T00:12:52.786-04:00I agree that a realignment is unlikely. I think th...I agree that a realignment is unlikely. I think the struggle and concern people feel will cause more people to contribute even more money more often, which will make politics even more hysterical. The American people will become more disillusioned, feel more helpless, and tune out even more. Guess that makes me a party pooper.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com