tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-89254933054760560672024-02-06T22:23:18.035-05:00The Mischiefs of FactionReflections on Parties and their Place in PoliticsSeth Maskethttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17178036016555722068noreply@blogger.comBlogger607125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8925493305476056067.post-66477745491262401492015-09-09T15:38:00.001-04:002019-08-08T17:57:59.517-04:00We've Moved<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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The Mischiefs of Faction is now located at <a href="http://mischiefsoffaction.com/">mischiefsoffaction.com</a>. Here's how to follow us:<br />
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We'll leave all our old content on this site for now.The Staffhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09733810096567290365noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8925493305476056067.post-26664433731457687542015-09-03T07:00:00.000-04:002015-09-08T12:51:24.325-04:00Classroom Iran Deal Primer: What's the Senate got to do with it?<span style="font-family: inherit;">By Jennifer N. Victor</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[We've got a few more posts in our hopper before we officially move to Vox next week. This one is timely.]</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">While there is lots of excellent <a href="http://www.vox.com/2015/4/2/8337347/iran-deal-good">reporting</a> and <a href="http://www.vox.com/2015/4/2/8336219/iran-nuclear-deal-plain-english/in/8104428">explaining</a>
of the Iran deal out there, in this post, I offer some political science explanation of what's happening in the Senate with the Iran proposal.</span><br />
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<![endif]--><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">What is the deal?</b><br />
<span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">In a nutshell, Iran agrees to give up 70 percent of its
centrifuges (and those it keeps will not be state-of-the-art) and to give up 97
percent of its enriched uranium (and that which it keeps will be weapons or
medical grade). Iran agrees to UN inspections to verify that it meets these
requirements and if so, many sanctions will be lifted.</span><br />
<br />
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="table of authorities"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="macro"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="toa heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Bullet"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Number"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Bullet 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Bullet 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Bullet 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Bullet 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Number 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Number 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Number 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Number 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="10" QFormat="true" Name="Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Closing"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Signature"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="Default Paragraph Font"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Message Header"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="11" QFormat="true" Name="Subtitle"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Salutation"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Date"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text First Indent"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text First Indent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Block Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Hyperlink"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="FollowedHyperlink"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="22" QFormat="true" Name="Strong"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="20" QFormat="true" Name="Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Document Map"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Plain Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="E-mail Signature"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Top of Form"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Bottom of Form"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Normal (Web)"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Acronym"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Address"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Cite"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Code"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Definition"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Keyboard"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Preformatted"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Sample"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Typewriter"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Variable"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Normal Table"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="annotation subject"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="No List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Contemporary"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Elegant"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Professional"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Subtle 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Subtle 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Balloon Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="Table Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Theme"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Placeholder Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" QFormat="true" Name="No Spacing"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Revision"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="34" QFormat="true"
Name="List Paragraph"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="29" QFormat="true" Name="Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="30" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="19" QFormat="true"
Name="Subtle Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="21" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="31" QFormat="true"
Name="Subtle Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="32" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="33" QFormat="true" Name="Book Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="37" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="Bibliography"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" QFormat="true" Name="TOC Heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="41" Name="Plain Table 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="42" Name="Plain Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="43" Name="Plain Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="44" Name="Plain Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="45" Name="Plain Table 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="40" Name="Grid Table Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46" Name="Grid Table 1 Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51" Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52" Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46" Name="List Table 1 Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3"/>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Why do we have a
deal?</b></div>
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a solution to the threat of Iran developing a nuclear weapon. If Iran developed
a nuclear weapon, the U.S., Europe, and Israel might be at risk of attack. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Evidence suggests Iran has been working toward
developing such a weapon. Previous efforts at curtailing Iran’s development of
nuclear weapons have focused on <a href="http://www.politico.com/story/2015/07/top-un-nuclear-inspector-to-brief-senators-on-iran-deal-120886" target="_blank">UN inspections</a> and sanctions, with <a href="http://www.npr.org/2013/11/25/247077050/crippled-by-sanctions-irans-economy-key-in-nuclear-deal" target="_blank">mixed results</a>.</span><br />
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">What is Congress’s
role in the deal?</b></div>
<span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">The U.S. constitution, and American historical
precedence, gives the president wide latitude over foreign policy. As the chief
executive, foreign policy is probably the public policy area where the
president has the most power. While the Senate technically must approve
treaties, most foreign policy is not enacted through treaties these days and
power in the legislature (<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">i.e.</i>,
Congress) is too fragmented to effectively negotiate with foreign states and
the executive branch has a great advantage in being consolidated in a <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=cS-MAQAAQBAJ&pg=PA381&lpg=PA381&dq=President+advantage+unitary+actor&source=bl&ots=_V5hNXzing&sig=dLabvYTaMT7qhFJhCgs_jrSZzbU&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0CD0Q6AEwBWoVChMI29S8y9PZxwIVxj8-Ch3kYwvA#v=onepage&q=President%20advantage%20unitary%20actor&f=false" target="_blank">unitary actor</a>, the president.</span><br />
<br />
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="index 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="index 9"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="toc 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="toc 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="index heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="35" SemiHidden="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="envelope address"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="endnote reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="10" QFormat="true" Name="Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" SemiHidden="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="11" QFormat="true" Name="Subtitle"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="22" QFormat="true" Name="Strong"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="20" QFormat="true" Name="Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Acronym"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Preformatted"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Normal Table"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="Table Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Placeholder Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" QFormat="true" Name="No Spacing"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Revision"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="34" QFormat="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="29" QFormat="true" Name="Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="30" QFormat="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 2"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 3"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 4"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 4"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 4"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 4"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 4"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 5"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 5"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="19" QFormat="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="21" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="31" QFormat="true"
Name="Subtle Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="32" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="33" QFormat="true" Name="Book Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="37" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="Bibliography"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" QFormat="true" Name="TOC Heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="41" Name="Plain Table 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="42" Name="Plain Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="43" Name="Plain Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="44" Name="Plain Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="45" Name="Plain Table 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="40" Name="Grid Table Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46" Name="Grid Table 1 Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51" Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52" Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 2"/>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Why doesn’t Congress
have to approve the deal?</b></div>
<span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Traditionally, both the President and Congress have
authority to impose and ease foreign sanctions; however, in this case, the
short answer to the question is that <b><a href="https://fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/R43311.pdf">Congress abdicated</a> its
sanction authority to the President.</b> In 2010 Congress passed a law (The
Comprehensive Iran Sanctions, Accountability, and Divestment Act), which the President
signed, that authorized the president to lift sanctions on Iran <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">only if</i> the President removes Iran from
the list of countries that sponsor terrorism and verifies that Iran does not
have a nuclear weapons development program. This law gives the president, not
congress, the authority to lift the sanctions if the President determines it is
“in the national interest” to do so.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Similar
laws were also passed in 2012.<a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=8925493305476056067#_ftn1" name="_ftnref1" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn1;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[1]</span></span></span></span></a>
Earlier this year the 114<sup>th</sup> Congress pass the Iran Nuclear Agreement
Act of 2015, which President Obama signed. The law requires the President to
submit any nuclear deal with Iran to Congress for review and assessment, and
limits the president’s ability to lift sanctions during the review period. We find
ourselves in this period now.<a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=8925493305476056067#_ftn2" name="_ftnref2" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn2;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[2]</span></span></span></span></a></span><br />
<br />
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<![endif]--></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">How can Congress stop
the deal?</b><br />
<span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Congress can stop the deal by passing a <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">joint resolution</i> that condemns or
nullifies the agreement.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A joint
resolution is like a bill in that it is passed by majority vote of each chamber
and goes to the president for signature.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>If it overcomes these hurdles, it becomes law. Congress uses joint
resolutions when it wants to make a law that doesn’t amend the U.S. Code, such
a declaring war, or enacting a continuing resolution to keep government funded
without appropriations.</span><br />
<br />
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="annotation reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="line number"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="page number"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="endnote reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="endnote text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="table of authorities"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="macro"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="toa heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Bullet"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Number"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Bullet 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Bullet 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Bullet 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Bullet 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Number 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Number 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Number 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Number 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="10" QFormat="true" Name="Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Closing"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Signature"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="Default Paragraph Font"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Message Header"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="11" QFormat="true" Name="Subtitle"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Salutation"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Date"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text First Indent"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text First Indent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Block Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Hyperlink"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="FollowedHyperlink"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="22" QFormat="true" Name="Strong"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="20" QFormat="true" Name="Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Document Map"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Plain Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="E-mail Signature"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Top of Form"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Bottom of Form"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Normal (Web)"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Acronym"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Address"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Cite"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Code"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Definition"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Keyboard"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Preformatted"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Sample"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Typewriter"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Variable"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Normal Table"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="annotation subject"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="No List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Contemporary"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Elegant"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Professional"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Subtle 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Subtle 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Balloon Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="Table Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Theme"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Placeholder Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" QFormat="true" Name="No Spacing"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Revision"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="34" QFormat="true"
Name="List Paragraph"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="29" QFormat="true" Name="Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="30" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="19" QFormat="true"
Name="Subtle Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="21" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="31" QFormat="true"
Name="Subtle Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="32" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="33" QFormat="true" Name="Book Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="37" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="Bibliography"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" QFormat="true" Name="TOC Heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="41" Name="Plain Table 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="42" Name="Plain Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="43" Name="Plain Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="44" Name="Plain Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="45" Name="Plain Table 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="40" Name="Grid Table Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46" Name="Grid Table 1 Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51" Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52" Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 6"/>
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</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">How could the Obama
Administration stop Congress from stopping the deal?</b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
There are two basic scenarios that could play out in Congress that would prevent Congress from stopping the Iran-deal.</div>
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</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br />
<i>Scenario 1</i>:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Each
chamber passes a joint resolution condemning or nullifying the deal. In this
case, the president would veto the resolution, and congress would then need to
override the veto to stop the bill. A veto override requires a 2/3 vote of <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">each</i> chamber.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If opponents of the deal do not have 2/3
support in the House and Senate, the bill remains vetoed and the Iran deal goes
forward.</div>
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<br /></div>
<span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">The following spatial diagram outlines a rough
sketch of this scenario. Imagine a one-dimensional ideological space, where the
far left is considered “Dovish” and the far right is considered “Hawkish.” These
are not precise estimates and one could easily haggle over exact positioning.
What’s important here are the relative positions of the elements. </span><br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span>Imagine that the current state of policy with Iran, the <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">status quo</i>, is somewhere in the middle. <span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">
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</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span>The median of the <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Republican
Party</i> position on Iran policy is likely somewhere on the right, while the
median position of the <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Democrats</i> is
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</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span> </li>
<li>The <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">deal</i> that the
Obama administration proposed can probably be considered somewhere to the left of the
status quo because it eases sanctions and, <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/15/opinion/an-iran-nuclear-deal-that-reduces-the-chance-of-war.html?_r=0" target="_blank">by some analysts’ accounts</a>, reduces
the near-term threat of war. This is important because we can note that the
Republicans prefer the status quo to the deal, which explains why they will all
vote against it (rather, vote in favor of the resolution that would strip the
deal). </li>
<li>T<span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">he final point to consider is what we’ll call
the “veto pivot.” If we lined up all 100 Senators in the chamber from left to
right in terms of their <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">ideal position</i>
on this hawk-dove spectrum, the <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">veto
pivot</i> would be the senator with 1/3 of the Senators to her left, and 2/3 of
the Senators to her right. This is because it requires a 2/3 vote of the Senate
to override a presidential veto. Now, we only need to know whether the veto
pivot prefers the status quo or the President’s deal.</span></li>
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The diagram shows in orange the range of policy
proposals that the veto pivot prefers to the status quo; by that I mean, based <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">only</i> on the spatial (<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">i.e.</i>, ideological) preferences of the
senators, proposals in the orange region are closer to the veto pivot’s ideal
point than the status quo. Since the President’s proposal falls inside this set
of policies, this model suggests that the Senate will <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">not</i> be successful in overriding a presidential veto, because at
least the veto pivot and the 33 senators to her left, prefer the president’s
proposal to the status quo. </div>
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<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><i>Scenario 2</i>: When the Republican controlled Senate attempts
to pass the joint resolution stopping the bill, the Democrats have the
opportunity to filibuster the resolution. This would “save” President Obama
from having to veto the bill. It appears this is a less likely, but not totally
unrealistic outcome.</span></span></div>
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<![endif]--><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">We can represent this scenario similarly to the
one above, except instead of a veto pivot that shows the point where 1/3 of the
senate is to the left, we would be interested in a <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">filibuster pivot</i> that shows the point where 2/5 of the senate is to
the left. This is because a 3/5 majority (60 senators) is required to call a
proposal to question, end debate, and take a vote; meaning, 2/5 (or the 40 senators to the left of the pivot, plus the pivot herself) can stop such a vote. When items up for vote on
the Senate floor do not receive this 60-vote supermajority, these days we call
it a filibuster (even though no actual filibuster has taken place). In our
scenario, the filibuster pivot would be to the <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">right</i> of the veto pivot above, but it is difficult to know how far
to the right. If the filibuster pivot is in fact on the other side of the
status quo from the proposal, then the Democrats will not be able to
successfully filibuster the resolution. If the filibuster pivot is to the left
of the status quo, then the Democrats will be able to successfully filibuster
the proposal.</span> </span></span></div>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List"/>
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</xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 10]>
<style>
/* Style Definitions */
table.MsoNormalTable
{mso-style-name:"Table Normal";
mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;
mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;
mso-style-noshow:yes;
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<![endif]--><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Given <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/wp/2015/09/02/obama-secures-votes-to-protect-iran-nuclear-deal/">recent
news</a> that Senator Mikulski is likely to support the Iran deal, it seems likely
that we are at least at Scenario 1 and that the Senate will be able to override
a presidential veto of the deal-squashing congressional resolution. There are
still a few weeks until these votes take place so we’ll have to wait and see if
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*Update (9/8/2015) <a href="http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/252916-obama-wont-need-veto-pen-on-iran-nuclear-deal" target="_blank">Reports this morning</a> that more Democratic Senators have come out in support of the deal suggest that we will see a filibuster of the joint resolution to stop the deal. We therefore find ourselves in <i>scenario 2</i> above, and can place a <i>filibuster pivot</i> to the left of the status quo in the figure.</div>
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<a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=8925493305476056067#_ftnref1" name="_ftn1" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn1;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[1]</span></span></span></span></a> National
Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2012; Iran Threat Reduction and Syria
Human Rights Act of 2012; Iran Freedom and Counter-proliferation Act of 2012</div>
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<div id="ftn2" style="mso-element: footnote;">
<a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=8925493305476056067#_ftnref2" name="_ftn2" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn2;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">[2]</span></span></span></span></a> <span style="font-size: 10.0pt;">Rennack, Dianne E. 2014. “Iran: US Economic Sanctions
and the Authority to Lift Restrictions.” Congressional Research Service Report 7-5700,
July 15, 2015.</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"></span>
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01423648177051511522noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8925493305476056067.post-44125023487384940112015-09-02T09:00:00.000-04:002015-09-02T14:16:20.327-04:00Vox Factiones<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://yt3.ggpht.com/-moy7q66uDVs/AAAAAAAAAAI/AAAAAAAAAAA/3kiAD7O0Q_E/s900-c-k-no/photo.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://yt3.ggpht.com/-moy7q66uDVs/AAAAAAAAAAI/AAAAAAAAAAA/3kiAD7O0Q_E/s900-c-k-no/photo.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<span style="font-size: x-small;">by the Staff</span></div>
<br />
We at the <i>Mischiefs of Faction</i> are pleased and honored to announce that we are moving. After more than three years of independent status, we are joining <a href="http://vox.com/">Vox.com</a>, effective next Tuesday, September 8th.<br />
<br />
This is a big step for this blog, which we founded in May of 2012 and have been running independently ever since. But we're very excited for this opportunity. At least at the beginning, we will continue business as usual, with the same group of regular writers and the same basic focus, although there may be further changes down the road. We're pleased that the Vox platform will give us greater reach, a more accessible layout, better research and publishing resources, as well as a fantastic new set of colleagues.<br />
<br />
Let us take this opportunity to thank all of you who have read and shared our postings, commented on our site, and occasionally even written for us. When we started <i>Mischiefs of Faction</i>, we felt there was a need for academic voices on the subject of parties in American politics, and you have helped support this perspective and used it to improve coverage and understanding of parties and partisanship. You helped us take an idea and turn it into an actual thing, and we are most grateful for it.<br />
<br />
We are also grateful to the writers and editors of Vox.com for making a space for us and allowing us to bring our perspective to a larger audience. In its short time on the scene, Vox has proven to be an impressive and insightful voice and an important contributor to the national political dialogue. We are excited to be a part of this, and we hope you'll all be able to follow us as we make this move.The Staffhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09733810096567290365noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8925493305476056067.post-46999330791139243192015-08-31T15:11:00.002-04:002015-08-31T15:11:18.596-04:00Famous Pairings<br class="Apple-interchange-newline" />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEieo4SqOccnOqaX9oLOtSot4xTry-bBRuV8NIjyC7KahSEe-wF34wAk7HvwgGgP9zWgFAHhoFNuqoTsbWCT2QSMcX-erlaZKMaU7AgewGnOFNOB9ObV9ywYldFyEXmFKub28WiqJLDvd0-3/s1600/chocolate+and+peanut+butter.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEieo4SqOccnOqaX9oLOtSot4xTry-bBRuV8NIjyC7KahSEe-wF34wAk7HvwgGgP9zWgFAHhoFNuqoTsbWCT2QSMcX-erlaZKMaU7AgewGnOFNOB9ObV9ywYldFyEXmFKub28WiqJLDvd0-3/s1600/chocolate+and+peanut+butter.jpg" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="font-size: 12.8000001907349px;"><b><i>Chocolate and Peanut Butter</i></b></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjo4kGDPziAvX41c8596UeCX59zkbuxAIFJg_ZxKgKlaw9vQDMvvPhDHjp4o4N24JPm4wT-XzkNdQb5RfxlTcOmYhGZqZLbWmptRIdtjTAFdBb4jYYwNMvm-oXjvtL0rcb9wQhPixodq9F9/s1600/lennon-mccartney.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="279" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjo4kGDPziAvX41c8596UeCX59zkbuxAIFJg_ZxKgKlaw9vQDMvvPhDHjp4o4N24JPm4wT-XzkNdQb5RfxlTcOmYhGZqZLbWmptRIdtjTAFdBb4jYYwNMvm-oXjvtL0rcb9wQhPixodq9F9/s320/lennon-mccartney.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="font-size: 12.8000001907349px;"><b><i>Lennon and McCartney</i></b></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjM-Njuy4ktfjhwGvCb7bb5kWagTk0nhkiOj5fpvJjOSys_PcdgMqXS5Q9J-3pydWGfmqR4cack4g7-IO40iwiTsg9GEwFgx2G-kumPPt-OThhknltpzTMsCeF75RWpHTo_KfBTpPBepUiq/s1600/Montana+and+Rice.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="249" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjM-Njuy4ktfjhwGvCb7bb5kWagTk0nhkiOj5fpvJjOSys_PcdgMqXS5Q9J-3pydWGfmqR4cack4g7-IO40iwiTsg9GEwFgx2G-kumPPt-OThhknltpzTMsCeF75RWpHTo_KfBTpPBepUiq/s320/Montana+and+Rice.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="font-size: 12.8000001907349px;"><b><i>Montana and Rice</i></b></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
This is not an announcement. It's not Wednesday yet. Announcements come on Wednesday.</div>
The Staffhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09733810096567290365noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8925493305476056067.post-18413639627397910052015-08-31T10:25:00.000-04:002015-08-31T11:51:53.453-04:00Not-so-silent reading<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgdpYBuLkEbwUZpaDDzmjXPrN00vyZlPShgwg5Jx_z64K0EhdO2711qdT4ClG9XEkT7kDbsWyFafmvK4-yRHBDmaSuYPm2OrPiBpDIfEy7WlIUtydOkRGKKu0yRW3PEB-hbVasWXcH4Yu0/s1600/political+correctness+.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgdpYBuLkEbwUZpaDDzmjXPrN00vyZlPShgwg5Jx_z64K0EhdO2711qdT4ClG9XEkT7kDbsWyFafmvK4-yRHBDmaSuYPm2OrPiBpDIfEy7WlIUtydOkRGKKu0yRW3PEB-hbVasWXcH4Yu0/s320/political+correctness+.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">The use of this image is meant to be tongue-in-cheek. Please don't send me hate mail about it.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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<span style="font-size: xx-small;">by Julia Azari </span></div>
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An <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/posteverything/wp/2015/08/25/im-a-duke-freshman-heres-why-i-refused-to-read-fun-home/">op-ed</a>
by Brian Grasso, a student at Duke who chose not to read Alison Bechdel's graphic memoir <i>Fun Home</i> for a
summer assignment, has touched off another round of arguments about campus free
speech, ideology, censorship, and accommodation. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The <a href="http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2015/09/the-coddling-of-the-american-mind/399356/">internet</a> <a href="http://www.newrepublic.com/article/122543/trigger-warning-myth">rattles</a> <a href="http://www.aaup.org/report/trigger-warnings">week</a> <a href="http://www.bustle.com/articles/104377-do-trigger-warnings-help-they-are-vital-acts-of-compassion-not-weak-attempts-at-being-politically">after</a> <a href="http://reason.com/blog/2015/08/11/how-trigger-warnings-maker-college-stude">week</a> with another hot take on the <a href="http://www.vox.com/2015/6/3/8706323/college-professor-afraid">suppression</a>
of free speech, or, alternately, the oppression of traumatized students. Little
of this has touched my own academic life; perhaps it has happened elsewhere on
campus and I’m oblivious. I teach courses on American political institutions,
and the lack of discussion of trigger warnings is perhaps telling in that
context. My courses, especially on the presidency, touch on war, <a href="http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/aia/part4/4p2959.html">genocide</a>, and slavery. But these events are presented in abstract terms
in way that most students are used to, and thus the issue of triggering has yet
to come up. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Reading about Mr. Grasso's experience of not
reading Bechdel’s memoir, it occurred to me that there are three very important
considerations when we think about the process of reading difficult material in
class. Students have profound and important knowledge about their own
experiences. I am not inclined to dismiss these perspectives. If these were our
research subjects, we would hear their perspectives as “local knowledge” and
consider them crucial to our findings. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
As a political science professor, I find these conversations
really helpful for effective teaching. Politics obviously changes a lot over time. I was
born in the twilight of the 1970s. My first presidential vote was cast in the
2000 election and I was an adult (barely) on September 11, 2001. Most of my students, who
were born in the mid-to-late 1990s, often have a very different idiom for
talking about politics than I do. They don’t get my Clinton jokes and they have
little memory of the Bush years.* If I want to explain politics effectively to them,
I need to listen to them and figure out where they are. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br />
This phenomenon goes beyond generational differences. The ways in which
students read texts or approach questions as fundamentalist Christians, as members
of particular demographic groups, or as people with a painful connection to
trauma like war or crime, has the potential to be very illuminating. It can be part
of a richer discussion of how to understand the social world. Knowing these
perspectives can inform the instructor about where the students are coming from
and how best to explain things in ways that make sense to them. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
However, the other two considerations balance against this
to some extent. First, there’s the one that should be obvious, but evidently bears
spelling out. The instructor has the expertise to present, contextualize, and
classify the material. I think the part of the <i>Fun Home</i> op-ed that bugged me
the most (and evidently I wasn’t <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/xx_factor/2015/08/26/duke_freshmen_and_fun_home_most_free_speech_attacks_come_from_the_right.html">alone</a>) was the student’s
classification of the material as “pornographic.” I’m not a literature scholar,
but it seems to me that other genres – literary fiction, memoir – have discussions
and depictions of sexuality as a part of human life. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The point of attending a college or university
and taking classes with experts is to learn from their, well, expertise – to go
beyond obvious or knee-jerk understandings of what we see in the world, to develop
deeper understandings of complicated subjects like social identity and sexuality,
or painful ones like violence. These are things that shape the social world.
The contention behind a liberal arts education is that understanding them can
help us improve the world we live in. This requires acknowledging the expertise
of the faculty, especially where difficult topics are concerned. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The final consideration goes back to the students. Some
students may not wish to share their experiences. The rights of students to
have control over what they share about themselves is an important one,
especially if we take seriously the concept of feeling “safe.” Feeling safe
doesn’t mean that you never have your beliefs challenged, but it does mean that
you don’t feel exposed or threatened. Lots of people have said this before, but it makes sense to say it again: letting students know what they're going to encounter in the material they read is not censorship or anti-intellectualism. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The trigger warning debate ultimately amounts to a series of
attempts to come up with one-size-fits-all rules for drawing boundaries between
these three considerations. That, I think, is where the real transgression against education occurs. The purpose of all of this should be to help students navigate these kinds of boundaries – situations in which conflicting considerations
apply – not to create an artificial environment that keeps such conflicts from
popping up. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Education occurs in these
spaces – not in spite of them. The ability to reconcile competing perspectives
and to look at problems in original and non-obvious ways are among the most
important goals of a liberal arts education<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
This approach sheds some light on why trigger warnings tend
not to come up when I teach about, say, Andrew Johnson’s veto of the 1866 Civil
Rights bill or politics of the Vietnam War. (Though it seems that perhaps the mileage may vary at other institutions.) These are upsetting topics, but we
have a language for talking about them from an institutional perspective that balances
different considerations in a way that is pretty widely understood. This
probably suggests that I need to rip some of these topics open a bit more, not that
my field has solved a puzzle in a clever way. <o:p></o:p></div>
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<div class="MsoNormal">
When it comes to other subjects, these boundaries may be
less settled and more unsettling. Teaching students to navigate them is a lot
of work, and when that work is taken out of context, educators can also be vulnerable. When instructors make classroom policies in response to political
pressure, job insecurity, or overwhelming workloads, then those are the actual
threats to intellectual freedom. This stuff takes work, not just a line on a syllabus. Many academic work environments are increasingly incompatible with the attention and protection that good teaching requires. In light of this, much of the trigger warning debate is a distraction. <o:p></o:p><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;">*They do often still get my Big Lebowski jokes. I try not to think about that too much. </span></div>
Julia Azari http://www.blogger.com/profile/06982342794900306791noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8925493305476056067.post-22071972184563551752015-08-31T09:24:00.000-04:002015-08-31T09:33:30.003-04:00Trump, Biden and The Politics of Consumption: When The Campaign Is Its Own Reward<h2 style="text-align: center;">
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<img alt="http://www.independent.co.uk/incoming/article10384428.ece/alternates/w620/donald-trump-v2.jpg" src="http://www.independent.co.uk/incoming/article10384428.ece/alternates/w620/donald-trump-v2.jpg" height="240" width="320" /><br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
by Richard Skinner</div>
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<a href="http://www.amazon.com/Ambition-Politics-Political-Careers-United/dp/B001RAVF7Y">Ambition
is the fuel that makes American politics run</a>: <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Becoming-Candidate-Political-Ambition-Decision/dp/052175660X/ref=sr_1_3?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1440945829&sr=1-3&keywords=jennifer+lawless">ambition
to win office, ambition to hold onto office, ambition to move up the “ladder”
of office</a>.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><a href="http://www.mischiefsoffaction.com/2014/05/why-run-for-president-if-you-cant-win.html">But
there are other reasons for seeking office</a>.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>A candidate may want to promote a set of ideas.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>She may believe that her party deserves
representation, even if she’s unlikely to win.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>She may want to gain notoriety for herself.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But there are circumstances in which the
campaign is its own reward, for the candidate, for the media, and for political
consultants.</div>
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<br /></div>
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<img alt="http://imgick.al.com/home/bama-media/width620/img/entertainment_impact/photo/18535309-mmmain.jpg" src="http://imgick.al.com/home/bama-media/width620/img/entertainment_impact/photo/18535309-mmmain.jpg" height="134" width="200" /> </div>
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<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Why does Donald Trump
run?</i><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I don’t know, but it’s
reasonable to rule out some of the standard possibilities.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He might believe that he could become
president, but if so, he’s probably deluded.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>I cannot imagine anyone appointing Trump to a Cabinet position or (even
less likely) selecting him as vice president.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Trump does not have clear views on most issues, so it’s hard to classify
his campaign as an ideological “crusade.”<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>When he toyed with being the Reform Party’s nominee in 2000, Trump
espoused views essentially opposite to what he holds now.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>(By contrast, Steve Forbes, the last
gazillionaire without political experience to seek the presidency, seemed
obsessed with the “flat tax.”<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Even Ross
Perot had pretty fleshed-out views on the budget deficit, foreign trade, and
political reform).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He talks a lot about
immigration, but he’s a newcomer to that issue as well.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></div>
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<br />
Unlike the earlier campaigns of Herman Cain or Mike
Huckabee, Trump’s presidential run seems unlikely to help his media “brand.”<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Instead, he’s lost his television show with
NBC and his clothing line with Macy’s.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Trump’s long ride as a celebrity was based on an essentially apolitical
image as Scrooge McDuck – a fabulously rich man who loved playing into the
cartoon.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>While his presidential campaign
may give him a new career as a darling of the conservative-entertainment
complex, Trump’s racially incendiary comments probably will make him an
untouchable to more controversy-adverse outlets.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></div>
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<br />
The best explanation for Donald Trump’s candidacy is that he
enjoys running for president, and the attention that the process gives him.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The campaign is its own reward.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">The Consultants Who
Work For Trump</i>.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Trump has not
received much backing from Republican Party insiders.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Sen. Jeff Sessions (R-AL) showed up at the Trump
rally in Mobile earlier this month, but did not endorse the Babbling
Billionaire.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Sessions, at least, has an
obvious reason to ally himself with Trump: he is perhaps the GOP’s leading
advocate of restricting immigration.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Otherwise, Republican Party actors have been hostile or aloof.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
But there has been one exception.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Donald Trump has been able to replace his
usual hangers-on with a set of Republican political professionals.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Corey Lewandowski, previously of Americans
for Prosperity, now serves as Trump’s campaign manager.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Sam Clovis quit as Rick Perry’s Iowa chair to
become national co-chair for Trump.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Chuck Laudner, who ran Rick Santorum’s Iowa campaign in 2012, will serve
as Trump’s state director.</div>
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<a href="http://www.amazon.com/For-Better-Worse-Political-Consultants/dp/0791460444">There
are many things that motivate political consultants</a>.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They want to advance their careers.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They want their party to win.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They want their ideology to prevail, both
within the party and outside.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They want
to make money.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Only one of those
motivations probably applies to Trump’s new friends.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Trump seems like a terrible general-election
nominee.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>While working for Trump might
be a way for some lesser-known consultants to gain attention, it probably would
alienate as many potential employers as it would attract.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>(In general, Trump’s hires seem distinctly B-team-ish,
especially for someone so famous and so rich).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>All three of these new hires are contradicting previously stated
views.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A Koch Brothers protégé is
working for an avowed protectionist.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A
religious conservative is working for a thrice-married gambling tycoon who loves
to “work blue.”<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><a href="http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2015/08/26/leaked-emails-show-iowan-sharply-criticized-trump-before-joining-his-campaign/32432755/">Earlier
this summer, Clovis expressed deep skepticism of Trump’s avowed conservatism
and offense at his disparaging remarks about John McCain.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></a><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Trump’s
money might best explain their willingness to sign up.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>From time immemorial, political consultants
have loved self-funders.</div>
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</div>
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<br /></div>
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<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">The Media</i>.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><a href="http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/donald-trump-is-running-a-perpetual-attention-machine/">While
Trump loves to feud with the mass media, his rise in polls matches up nicely
with his disproportionate share of press coverage</a>.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Why does he occupy so much space on our TV
and computer screens?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He gets
clicks!<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He gets viewers!<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>No wonder why Trump supporters so often sound
more like fans of a reality-show star than like backers of a political
candidate.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></div>
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<a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=8925493305476056067" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"></a><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><img class="irc_mi" src="http://media.salon.com/2013/01/Screen-Shot-2013-01-04-at-10.53.54-AM1.png" height="108" style="margin-top: 42px;" width="200" /> </span></div>
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<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">The
Conservative-Entertainment Complex</i>.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><a href="http://www.mischiefsoffaction.com/2015/08/a-trumped-up-debate.html">I’ve
commented before on Donald Trump’s relationship with the Republican “partisan
press.”</a><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Despite not actually being
all that conservative, Trump feeds them the “affect” they crave.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Trump has alienated some elements of the
conservative media: those who care about policy, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-havoc-that-donald-trump-wreaks--on-his-own-party/2015/08/26/7418c2c8-4b4c-11e5-84df-923b3ef1a64b_story.html">those
who want a strong Republican nominee</a>, those who shy away from racially
tinged appeals.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Instead, his strength
has been with his fellow trash-talkers like <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2015/08/17/politics/ann-coulter-donald-trump-immigration-abortion/">Ann
Coulter</a>, the writers at <a href="http://www.buzzfeed.com/mckaycoppins/breitbart-staffers-believe-trump-has-given-money-to-site-for#.hkRMwNRWB">Breitbart</a>,
and <a href="http://www.buzzfeed.com/rosiegray/the-real-media-machine-behind-trump-conservative-talk-radio#.um0WKw0md">the
yakkers of AM radio</a> – broadly speaking, the trashier side of the conservative
“outrage industry.” <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>(Fox News falls
somewhere in between).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>While this crowd
has always harped on illegal immigration, they probably care less about Trump’s
policy views than his outrageous personality, which drives the clicks and
listeners.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Trump’s willingness to push
racial and gender “hot buttons” fits perfectly with the business model of the
Michael Savages and Rush Limbaughs.</div>
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<img class="irc_mi" src="http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/files/2014/09/biden.jpg" height="120" style="margin-top: 0px;" width="200" /> </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">What’s Up With Joe?</i><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We are seeing another round of speculation
that Vice President Joseph Biden might enter the presidential race.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I’m quite skeptical that he will actually
jump in, <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2015/08/17/politics/ann-coulter-donald-trump-immigration-abortion/">and
it seems like Democratic insiders</a> <a href="http://www.politico.com/story/2015/08/hillary-clinton-2016-democratic-elite-213148">feel
the</a> <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/politics/first-draft/2015/08/27/draft-joe-biden-meeting-draws-small-crowd-as-democrats-gather/?_r=0">same
way</a>.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Biden might be interested in
running as a tribute to his late son, and I imagine many in his inner circle
genuinely think of him as a potential president.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But who else wants to talk about Biden?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><a href="http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2015/08/joe-biden-and-the-democratic-vacuum/402694/">Molly
Ball of <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">The Atlantic </i>probably best
explains Biden-mentum, <br />
“ spun out of thin air by bored reporters and underemployed Democratic
operatives in the August dead zone of presidential politics.”</a><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Biden speculation is a win-win for these two
groups.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If he jumps in, the journalists
have a great story and the operatives might get jobs.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If he doesn’t, the journalists will have
already produced the clickbait, and the hacks will have gotten some publicity.</div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07640783415940281769noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8925493305476056067.post-27496627429074396562015-08-30T00:10:00.001-04:002015-08-30T00:11:44.253-04:00No Announcement Tonight<div style="text-align: center;">
MEDIA ADVISORY</div>
<i>Mischiefs of Faction</i> will not be making any announcements tonight. Not on a Saturday night. That would be weird. You should be having fun tonight, although if you are are reading this blog on a Saturday night you are probably working on your APSA paper.* In either case, here's some music to get you through the night while you wait for an announcement:<br />
<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<iframe allowfullscreen="" class="YOUTUBE-iframe-video" data-thumbnail-src="https://i.ytimg.com/vi/AEAplvOiqbA/0.jpg" frameborder="0" height="266" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/AEAplvOiqbA?feature=player_embedded" width="320"></iframe></div>
<br />
* For any non-political scientist, that is a reference to the <a href="http://community.apsanet.org/annualmeeting/home/" target="_blank">Annual Meeting</a> of the <a href="http://www.apsanet.org/" target="_blank">American Political Science Association</a> in San Francisco, September 3-6. Formal deadline for submitting conference papers: August 4. Estimated percentage of papers submitted by August 4: 8 percent, mostly by scholars with multiple papers who then start their second/third paper from scratch.Gregory Kogerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09050792102219948356noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8925493305476056067.post-79649595732497987862015-08-26T09:38:00.001-04:002015-08-26T09:38:20.139-04:00Reimagining the presidency: Jimmy Carter's impact on the office <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgI4l4Pv02CLC8fdJ9XIXXmPtrFuAMWhghZr9Jk57XCjAZG-68Y_HSb4rnWsw7H-k1tnqa_WOlylfkjNXxlDPDS2Tqs-mmiSYlz_5yC43pUI4I3hAJOpLeBN_1XrBoOUD262lzP87YJlPI/s1600/Carter+Mondale+button.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgI4l4Pv02CLC8fdJ9XIXXmPtrFuAMWhghZr9Jk57XCjAZG-68Y_HSb4rnWsw7H-k1tnqa_WOlylfkjNXxlDPDS2Tqs-mmiSYlz_5yC43pUI4I3hAJOpLeBN_1XrBoOUD262lzP87YJlPI/s1600/Carter+Mondale+button.jpg" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small;">by Julia Azari </span></div>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Since Jimmy
Carter’s announcements over the last few weeks about his cancer diagnosis, there's been a bunch
of <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2015/08/20/politics/jimmy-carter-cancer-retirement-post-presidency/">articles</a> about his legacy. Many of these focus on his </span><a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-courage-of-jimmy-carter/2015/08/22/500a91d4-482e-11e5-846d-02792f854297_story.html" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">post-presidential</a><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> career as a <a href="http://www.vox.com/2015/8/20/9182531/jimmy-carter-guinea-worm">humanitarian</a>. The implicit, and sometimes
stated, comparison is with his presidency, which is not considered much of a success. But
to characterize Carter’s presidency as simply a failure, end of story, is to
miss a great deal of its significance. Jimmy Carter was the first president
to serve under the conditions that define the contemporary presidency.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Characterizing
presidents as the “first” to do anything is always risky, unless you’re talking
about George Washington, or the <a href="http://millercenter.org/president/kennedy">few</a> <a href="http://millercenter.org/president/obama">demographic</a> “firsts” we’ve had. Presidential
scholars disagree about whether the norms and capabilities that defined the presidency
were really different in the nineteenth century, and about how various types of
changes – in the nomination process, in communication technology – have affected
the presidency as an institution. As a result, there's limited scholarly consensus about whether presidency was fundamentally different after the Progressive Era, or World War II, or Watergate, or whatever. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Those caveats
aside, there are a few features that make Carter’s presidency distinct. He was
the first president elected after the <i>Roe
v. Wade</i> decision in 1973, and the first president elected after Watergate. The
Democratic wave of “<a href="http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2014/11/the-democrats-high-water-mark-came-40-years-ago-112492.html">Watergate babies</a>” had been elected to Congress and the religious
right was gaining traction within the Republican Party, two factors associated with the ideological sorting of the parties. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The Carter case
is an anchoring one in my book about presidential mandate-claiming – a topic
that, I argue, is primarily about presidential authority rather than about the
specific details of any particular election. It’s evident from my archival work
that Carter’s political team looked at the presidency differently than many of his
predecessors. Some of this was what I call “reimagining” the office, and it
began with Nixon, but took off with Carter.
After Johnson’s departure, public confidence in government began to decline,
and, especially after Watergate, the idea of a strong and powerful executive
branch began to seem like, well, not such a great idea after all. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The other
relevant development was an infusion of morality into mainstream political
discourse. This isn’t to say that politics was devoid of <a href="http://www.tamupress.com/product/Moral-Rhetoric-of-American-Presidents,369.aspx">moral rhetoric</a> or moral ideas before. But this specific moment not only called
for a moral approach to counterbalance the abuses of the recent past; it also represented
a point when major questions about the structure of society – race, gender,
patriotism – were all part of the debate between parties and candidates. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">These factors were
probably not the main drivers of Carter’s policy agenda, but they were central
to the politics of his presidency. His efforts to reconcile religious morality
and a fairly conservative position on abortion with the growing importance of
women’s groups in the Democratic coalition didn’t go very well, reflecting a
political divide that would become more clear-cut in the ensuing years. The
Carter administration also framed some of its major policy initiatives –
especially on <a href="http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/americanexperience/features/primary-resources/carter-energy/">energy</a> with phrases like "the moral equivalent of war," only to have them crumble into piecemeal changes. As Burton and Scott Kaufman <a href="https://kuecprd.ku.edu/~upress/cgi-bin/series/american-presidency-series/978-0-7006-1471-4.html">note</a> in their book
about the Carter presidency, the commitment to a human rights-oriented foreign
policy also came up against practical obstacles - the necessity of taking other
considerations into account and of working with allies with questionable human
rights records. As Andrew Flint and Joy
Porter <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1741-5705.2004.00234.x/abstract;jsessionid=9F93B351F83C37FBC29D59E2556B5693.f04t03?userIsAuthenticated=false&deniedAccessCustomisedMessage=">observe</a>, Carter was president at a time when “religious issues had
entered mainstream politics.” (30) But his presidency also demonstrated
the limitations of moral vision in governance. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Part of Carter’s
reimagination project was his emphasis on presenting an informal and low-key
image. As I’ve noted before, the presidency is caught in an ongoing dilemma
between what the equality and accountability that democracy demands, and the power
and formality that the office requires. Carter stressed the former; accounts of
his candidacy and presidency are full of references to his plaid shirts and
cardigans, and he tried to adapt the theatrical intimacy of FDR’s fireside
chats. We’ve seen echoes of this with subsequent presidents – and also efforts
to cultivate more conventional images. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">One of the
rhetorical shifts that I find in my research is the increase in defensive communication
by presidents. Some of this reflects the fact that there are now more press
conferences, and thus more reporters asking questions to which presidents sometimes
respond defensively. Communications among Carter’s speechwriters also reveal
concern with addressing critics. As polarization has increased, the defensive
stance has become an even more common feature in presidential communication. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">One of Carter’s least-appreciated
rhetorical innovations was his tendency to confront difficulties and downsides
in his public speeches. Take for example his energy speech in 1977, which began this way: </span></div>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br />I just returned from a trip to the suburbs of Pittsburgh where we had a chance to observe from the helicopter the tremendous industrial complex along the Monongahela River. This is a concentration of production and employment that is almost unequaled anywhere else in the country.<br /> <br />The snowfall and severe weather--it was five degrees even up in the morning there--has created very serious problems. The natural gas supplies are down to minimum level.</span></blockquote>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhBbGbUYxLhhuPlyRLg-rH7AxYAGkJGbPwVLQheULExCOr-iANgXTKNTJVRZ7Or8r2Ktt2uHEJM0eJVVCdcpXw0wYYF-oXyS8GkQHHhhTm3_RzMSVKmgFrB8cEfROtnWM1GXGd2kj9jaSQ/s1600/jimmy_carter_crisis.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="221" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhBbGbUYxLhhuPlyRLg-rH7AxYAGkJGbPwVLQheULExCOr-iANgXTKNTJVRZ7Or8r2Ktt2uHEJM0eJVVCdcpXw0wYYF-oXyS8GkQHHhhTm3_RzMSVKmgFrB8cEfROtnWM1GXGd2kj9jaSQ/s320/jimmy_carter_crisis.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">And, of course, there's the famous 1979 "malaise" speech, when Carter told the electorate, "It's clear that the true problems of our Nation are much deeper—deeper than gasoline lines or energy shortages, deeper even than inflation or recession." He also called the nation's "crisis of confidence" a "threat to American democracy." </span><br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">It’s
hard to find evidence that this was a very effective rhetorical strategy. But
we see lots of examples of the opposite – of rhetoric that obscures tradeoffs
inherent in the policy process, that denies potential negative consequences,
and that skirts difficult or nuanced questions. Scholars have labeled this “<a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1741-5705.2007.02616.x/abstract?userIsAuthenticated=false&deniedAccessCustomisedMessage=">white noise</a>,” and “<a href="http://the post-rhetorical presidency">the post-rhetorical presidency</a>.”</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Much of Carter’s
neglected legacy can be found in the way that subsequent presidents have responded
to his attempted innovations. When he was inaugurated in 1977, there were lots
of reasons why Carter and his political team perceived the need to try new communication
approaches. And as with any experiment, some of their efforts were less than
successful. Many of the unsuccessful attempts were castigated by critics as
“weakness.” As a result, they set the stage for how to convey “strength” under the new political conditions. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Some of these
innovations have resurfaced in the twenty-first century. As Jason Berggren and
Nicol Rae <a href="http://www.sjsu.edu/people/jennifer.rycenga/courses/RelS191F12/s1/EvangelicalPresidentialStyle.pdf">argue</a>, Carter’s “evangelical” approach to leadership also provides
context for understanding how George W. Bush framed his foreign policy. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">And although the comparison is obviously
politically fraught, Obama’s early depictions of goodness and American
nationhood, his efforts to and his reform agenda share common ground with Carter.
Different context and skills have produced different results, of course. But it
would be incorrect to assume that because Carter wasn’t reelected in 1980, his ideas
about the presidency disappeared completely. The problems he dealt with
persisted, and some of Carter’s strategies were more effective, at least in the
short term, when adapted to new contexts. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">We miss a lot if
we just write Carter off as a failed president with an amazing <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2015/05/22/opinion/sunday/24vaughn.html?smid=pl-share&_r=0">post-presidency</a>.
His presidency represented many early attempts to deal with a new political
environment –one whose features continued to shape our political scene. Carter
didn’t just have tough policy issues to address. He also had to wrestle with the
question of how to practice presidential politics in the context of growing polarization
and declining trust. None of his successors have been able to escape these
questions either. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">These questions have resurfaced recently in Hillary Clinton's <a href="http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2015/08/hillary-clintons-blunt-view-of-social-progress/402020/">comments</a> to Black Lives Matter activists. The Democratic presidential candidate suggested that politics is about changing policy, not about changing hearts. While many of the goals might be the same, this represents a fundamentally different approach to politics than we've seen throughout much of what we might call the post-Carter era. Clinton's view embraces pragmatism and process; the alternative is rooted in the moral values of politics. How to best approach racial justice, criminal justice reform, and economic inequality are obviously open questions. The hearts and minds vs. policy question may have major implications going forward. When we assess Jimmy Carter's legacy, we should acknowledge that, as president, he was an important part of this conversation. </span></div>
<!--EndFragment-->Julia Azari http://www.blogger.com/profile/06982342794900306791noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8925493305476056067.post-62216311255921033592015-08-26T00:24:00.000-04:002015-08-26T00:24:28.340-04:00No Caucus For You!<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhTsrPd6hyphenhypheniMq771K2drgO0VOhi1BsZUgWL4Dj31-eOttj9mtoiv54iQAB2Mu5EjQESE-sSqnCmQ2U_Km5y0vETSvlxE6u9bqT6-8zJDRsvH12rbk8iYlGdiLNi3nDw5JN1sT7iRV0swg9p/s1600/Soup-Nazi-e1375820887322.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhTsrPd6hyphenhypheniMq771K2drgO0VOhi1BsZUgWL4Dj31-eOttj9mtoiv54iQAB2Mu5EjQESE-sSqnCmQ2U_Km5y0vETSvlxE6u9bqT6-8zJDRsvH12rbk8iYlGdiLNi3nDw5JN1sT7iRV0swg9p/s1600/Soup-Nazi-e1375820887322.jpg" /></a></div>
<br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;">by Seth Masket</span><br />
<br />
<a href="http://www.denverpost.com/news/ci_28700919/colorado-republicans-cancel-2016-presidential-caucus-vote" target="_blank">On Tuesday</a>, the Colorado Republican Party's executive committee voted to cancel the presidential preference poll that would have been held at its 2016 presidential caucus. In effect, Colorado has just dropped out of the Republican presidential nomination process.<br />
<br />
To be clear, there will still be a Republican caucus in the state, sometime in late winter. But a caucus generally serves two functions. First, there is a preference vote, at which participants register their support for various presidential candidates. Second, there is an election for county convention delegates. This is the first stage in the byzantine process of selecting national convention delegates who will represent Colorado Republicans at the national convention in Cleveland next summer. The state party just got rid of the first part.<br />
<br />
This will likely have substantial effects on who participates in the caucus and who campaigns in the state. Since there will be no candidate preference vote, there's no bragging rights for the winner, so there's no real point in expending much time or effort campaigning in Colorado. There will be few ads, little campaign presence, almost no rallies, probably no door-knocking. Other than coverage of the national campaigns, Colorado's Republican voters will get little notice that there's a caucus going on. And it's not like caucuses usually get much of a turnout anyway. Five percent of eligible voters is considered great turnout for a caucus (other than Iowa's).<br />
<br />
The only people likely to show up for this event are those who are determined to be national convention delegates. These are people who are committed not only to attending the caucus, but also the county convention, the district convention, the state convention, and the national convention. These are unusual people.<br />
<br />
What's more, these are people who probably believe that their participation in the national convention could be determinative of the nomination outcome. In other words, they're counting on the brokered convention scenario, in which no candidate has a majority of delegates after the last of the state primaries and caucuses and in which their own vote could be pivotal in picking a nominee. This hasn't happened in a long time. All this is to say that turnout will be extremely low and will consist of an odd collection of partisan activists committed to maintaining some leverage on the convention floor against the party's favorite candidate.<br />
<br />
Why is the state party doing this? The state GOP chair seems concerned about the large number of presidential candidates and the volatility of the race; a candidate could very well win the caucus, get a ton of pledged delegates, only to drop out a week or two later, leaving the delegates unpledged.* It's not clear to me why this is a problem. After all, Rick Santorum won the Colorado GOP caucus in 2012, and after he dropped out, his pledged delegates were free to vote for the party's ultimate nominee, Mitt Romney. Like basically every nominee in the modern era, Romney had enough pledged delegates from the caucuses and primaries that there was no real contest at the convention. The fact that Colorado's delegates largely started as Santorum people really wasn't an issue. So it's not obvious just what problem is being fixed here.<br />
<br />
But there's a considerable downside to all this. Party voters will have less incentive to learn about the candidates. Any democratic benefits that result from people discussing politics with their neighbors at a caucus meeting were pretty much thrown out the door. A lot of potential advertising revenue has been squandered. If you're a Coloradan who hates political ads, okay, this is a pretty good outcome for you, but really, opting out of a monumental decision like which candidate to nominate for president is not something to be proud of.<br />
<br />
<br />
*The party is also claiming that current national party rules require all delegates to be pledged to the plurality winner of a state caucus vote. This seems a <a href="http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2013/01/thoughts-on-where-2016-presidential.html" target="_blank">strained interpretation</a> of RNC rules.Seth Maskethttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17178036016555722068noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8925493305476056067.post-2716499364024281022015-08-21T15:09:00.002-04:002015-08-25T12:00:09.103-04:00Have We Ever Elected a President Who Has Never Before Won an Election?<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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The dominant political story in the U.S. today is the odd
combination of <a href="http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-national-gop-primary">Donald
Trump’s polling dominance for the Republican nomination</a> combined with the
nearly unanimous attitude that he’s <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2015/08/10/can-donald-trump-win-here-are-5-things-he-needs-to-do-but-probably-wont/">unlikely
to win</a> <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/2015/07/17/trump-wont-win-but-yes-he-matters.html">the
nomination</a> or <a href="http://www.vice.com/read/the-real-reason-why-donald-trump-will-never-be-president-813">the
presidency</a>. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
One of the reasons Trump is unlikely to win is because no
one like him ever has. That is, nearly every person who has ever served as
President has been previously elected to public office (e.g., vice-president,
senator, U.S. representative, state senator, governor, or state representative).
There are, however, a few exceptions. They are listed here.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Presidents who have never held elective office:</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiPdbD9qV8IkxdcZuKqjp6NukqU4bfnj3AViiMnjjdtBKEFpE931qCf9r_kkg3SXRwM8jFHfnN5FoIB9A1tNOFMw_mbGbgPO1QAuqkZ9fP3DVkWVRYzg6OKYQSxPkYutrqMNuWMySn-H9c/s1600/Have+We+Ever+Elected+a+President+Who+Has+Never+Before+Won+an+Election-+-+The+Mischiefs+of+Faction.clipular.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="176" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiPdbD9qV8IkxdcZuKqjp6NukqU4bfnj3AViiMnjjdtBKEFpE931qCf9r_kkg3SXRwM8jFHfnN5FoIB9A1tNOFMw_mbGbgPO1QAuqkZ9fP3DVkWVRYzg6OKYQSxPkYutrqMNuWMySn-H9c/s640/Have+We+Ever+Elected+a+President+Who+Has+Never+Before+Won+an+Election-+-+The+Mischiefs+of+Faction.clipular.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br /><span style="font-size: x-small;">Source:
<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Presidents_of_the_United_States_by_previous_experience">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Presidents_of_the_United_States_by_previous_experience</a></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Taft and Hoover are the only two American presidents who
were elected to the presidency despite having never been elected to previous
office or served as a high-ranking military officer; however, both served as
high-ranking federal government officials.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Donald Trump has never been elected to public office (a big
disqualifier in American politics), never been appointed to a political office,
and has no military experience. He is a businessman. We have had presidents who
have had previous careers in business (e.g., Harding, Truman, both Bushes), but
none who have gone straight from business to being elected President.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Of course, there is a lot about Trump’s candidacy that is
unique, and that may be his biggest asset right now. Suffice to say, by
historical standard he is not a high-quality candidate and his polling
dominance is primarily a function of his fame and relatively lack luster
performances by his opponents, so far.<br />
<br />
*Updated 8/21/2015 at 3:36pm EDT. The previous post included George Washington on this list, but it was pointed out that he served in Virginia's House of Burgesses. </div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01423648177051511522noreply@blogger.com35tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8925493305476056067.post-88598299743540493862015-08-20T09:56:00.000-04:002015-08-27T17:47:56.147-04:00Four Approaches to Providing Political News, Given that So Many People Don't Want It [Updated]<span style="font-size: x-small;">By Jonathan Ladd</span><br />
<br />
In his <a href="http://tinyletter.com/mattyglesias/letters/well-i-just-had-to-laugh">newsletter</a> this week, Matt Yglesias makes an excellent point that I want to pass along and expand on. He writes:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
I enjoyed Ravi Somaiya's piece in the <i>New York Times</i> about everyone's Cecil The Lion hot takes and how <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/17/business/where-clicks-reign-audience-is-king.html?_r=1">digital media is basically garbage</a>. But like most such takes, it strikes me that it fails to grapple in a remotely serious way with the fact that analog media was <i>also garbage</i>. </blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Of course there was lots of important, substantive journalism in analog media. But these pieces tend to act as if classic newspapering was a blend of fearless investigative reports maybe leavened by earnest writeups of school board meetings. </blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Actual newspapers were selling a lot of commodity information services -- weather, sports scores, stock prices -- alongside things like crossword puzzles ("quizzes" in today's parlance), horoscopes, comic strips, syndicated George Will columns, and soft focus lifestyle features. Lots of hard national and international news was either straight wire service syndication or else rewrites ("aggregation") of accounts from more prestigious outlets. Local television news was an infamous cesspool of violence ("if it bleeds it leads") and sensationalism.</blockquote>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgK_IyWtgHGPw8f7hzN-T1vIGA-nHY8n8Wibxnc9n9SQOHLRW2gV9D9LuONRcDobSu0zDCNkMj_yJK3dOJkm6X0lXxWiD-aX51b9Lrm32uapyEptWqFD5lBDBIrgNnaWA5FhHl_5mv18VE/s1600/WAGA_12_LRG.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgK_IyWtgHGPw8f7hzN-T1vIGA-nHY8n8Wibxnc9n9SQOHLRW2gV9D9LuONRcDobSu0zDCNkMj_yJK3dOJkm6X0lXxWiD-aX51b9Lrm32uapyEptWqFD5lBDBIrgNnaWA5FhHl_5mv18VE/s400/WAGA_12_LRG.jpg" width="400" /></a>This highlights a more general problem. All news media organizations throughout U.S. history have had to face the tough fact that only a minority of the public is interested in what political elites would call informative or high quality political news (see <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Nature_and_Origins_of_Mass_Opinion">here</a>, <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Post-Broadcast-Democracy-Inequality-Involvement-Psychology/dp/0521675332/">here</a>, <a href="http://www.amazon.com/All-News-Thats-Fit-Sell/dp/0691123675">here</a>, and <a href="http://www.sscnet.ucla.edu/polisci/faculty/zaller/media%20politics%20book%20.pdf">here</a>). There are different strategies for dealing with this fact, but you can't just wish it away.<br />
<br />
One option is not to bother with political news at all. Many websites today (and many magazines and newspapers in years past) have focused on various other entertaining topics and with little or no political information. As Yglesias points out, local TV news programs have for decades had more viewers nationally than other other type of news programming. Yet not coincidentally, local TV news contains very little political news. These programs' successful strategy is to follow what <a href="http://www.amazon.com/The-News-About-American-Journalism/dp/0375714154">marketing surveys</a> tell them viewers most want from their broadcasts: weather, crime, sports, and other human interest stories.<br />
<br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh2sf-5VVBrbu6sJFz9odiI6U0V2-eScgX2P9WbbptrBplRQQu4L3yyl1WnrdijJSZe3LJhGDRSWhD8xjRauq1p6j56ZF2kNjHM9BltA4v4PRa13h3EklEmNnHM3ZJtjINZRKmim9Po0kk/s1600/Wales.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh2sf-5VVBrbu6sJFz9odiI6U0V2-eScgX2P9WbbptrBplRQQu4L3yyl1WnrdijJSZe3LJhGDRSWhD8xjRauq1p6j56ZF2kNjHM9BltA4v4PRa13h3EklEmNnHM3ZJtjINZRKmim9Po0kk/s400/Wales.jpg" width="330" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Illustrated story on whales from the <i>New York World</i><br />
on Aug. 13, 1911<span style="font-size: 12.8000001907349px;">. </span>See <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/press_box/2005/09/the_lost_world_of_joseph_pulitzer.html">here</a> for more.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
Largely eschewing politics was essentially the strategy of the first mass market newspapers that developed in the United States: the commercial broadsheet newspapers of the mid-to-late-1800s. Starting with the <i>New York Sun</i> in the mid-1800s and reaching full flower with the rival national newspaper chains of Joseph Pulitzer and William Randolph Hearst in the late 1800s and early 1900s, U.S. newspapers for the first time adopted a business model of making money through large circulations that attracted lucrative advertising. To do this, they had very low prices (the<i> New York Sun</i> was labeled the "penny press") and featured very little politics. In the 1800s, these mass-market broadsheet dailies were 8-12 pages and featured mostly stories about almost everything besides politics, including: business, crime, accidents, fires, celebrity divorce, suicide, labor, education, religion, sports, recent inventions, diseases, weather, books, theater, music, fashion, recipes, and even serialized fiction (see <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=eCG98jIAG_MC&source=gbs_book_other_versions">here</a>, <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=uLois7_nNMgC&printsec=frontcover&dq=Michael+Schudson&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0CCEQ6AEwAGoVChMIpPTNqa61xwIVyTw-Ch2bTQlJ#v=onepage&q=Michael%20Schudson&f=false">here</a>, <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=9Ao6F5QUJ6sC&dq=Michael+E.+McGerr&source=gbs_navlinks_s">here</a>, and <a href="http://press.princeton.edu/titles/9607.html">here</a>).<br />
<br />
A second strategy is to include informative political coverage, but to bundle it with more entertaining content. As Yglesias points out, this was the approach of major U.S. newspapers through most of the twentieth century. The idea is that, even though newspapers could have made money without political coverage, reporters and newspaper owners wanted to cover politics. So they covered lots of other entertaining topics and included political news as well, all bundled in the same newspaper. Advertisers and subscribers were mainly paying for the more entertaining types of news, and that subsidized the political news. (Pulitzer's <i>New York World</i> and Hearst's <i>New York American</i> also followed this strategy after about the turn of the twentieth century, when they were <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/press_box/2005/09/the_lost_world_of_joseph_pulitzer.html">huge bundles of different sections</a> but also included political news coverage.) This worked until the advertising base for all <a href="http://www.poynter.org/news/mediawire/353911/mid-year-report-the-newspaper-industrys-billion-dollar-challenge/">newspapers</a> <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2012/11/12/google_ad_revenue_tops_entire_us_print_media_industry_chart.html">collapsed</a>. Yet this model is still used by newer outlets, It is basically the financial model for the news operation at sites like <i>Buzzfeed</i>, and to some extent <i>Vox</i>. All those quizzes and top-10 lists that <i>Buzzfeed </i>posts, the lifestyle stories that <i>Vox </i>runs, and all the other entertaining content appeals to a broad audience, brings in clicks and ad revenue, and that subsidizes the political news.<br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhxOjzikuiI4qn9Dxk4NKpExhT40sG3E9MaLBBF0cByBclX_b4dv3JQebdtnh3DP_CwDUN_EtvPR8T5vgg8dqkgWvQPkOQyjDrY8HnGRAoViY3U6Gd-PSS-IfdadsdIBWHHM-kln_FpXuY/s1600/Cartoons.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhxOjzikuiI4qn9Dxk4NKpExhT40sG3E9MaLBBF0cByBclX_b4dv3JQebdtnh3DP_CwDUN_EtvPR8T5vgg8dqkgWvQPkOQyjDrY8HnGRAoViY3U6Gd-PSS-IfdadsdIBWHHM-kln_FpXuY/s400/Cartoons.jpg" width="317" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">A <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/press_box/2005/09/the_lost_world_of_joseph_pulitzer.2.html">cartoon page</a> from the <i>New York World </i>in <br />
the early 1900s.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
A third approach is for political parties, activists, or politicians to directly subsidize money-losing political news organizations. This was how newspapers were financed during the revolutionary era through through the Jacksonian era. Political newspapers were subsidized by incumbent politicians, who gave the papers lucrative government printing contracts or employed editors as postmasters or in other government jobs. Newspapers were also subsidized with direct payments from party coffers or wealthy party supporters. This economic model led newspapers to serve their economic masters (politicians and parties) rather than needing to appeal to the mass audience with less political interest. These papers were usually 4-page weeklies or dailies entirely filled with political content, in which information and propaganda mixed seamlessly. (See <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=eCG98jIAG_MC&source=gbs_book_other_versions">here</a> or chapter 2 in <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Why-Americans-Hate-Media-Matters/dp/0691147868/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1440078357&sr=1-1&keywords=why+americans+hate+the+media">my book</a>.)<br />
<br />
The only area where this media model still survives in the U.S. is in ideological magazines and websites such as the <i>New Republic</i>, <i>American Prospect</i>, <i>National Review</i>, <i>Weekly Standard</i>, etc. These news organizations and others like them rarely sell much, if any, advertising, and don't sell enough subscriptions to avoid consistently losing money. They are supported, not by political parties directly as the old party newspapers were, but by ideologically sympathetic owners and/or donors.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjPWqp9-JbICUUk3qhx4z76gxlmPrUYHkXvPLqMHURVbamtTTm08M1FEpXbM6C3P4u3DwhqSdFioN25kH67mzQYdvt8_7FOxDLX6m5gB4rVNhdk9F4VcCFWlJm7TMuLWo2HwxnEr6Q7_t8/s1600/CBS_Evening_News_with_Cronkite%252C_1968.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="298" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjPWqp9-JbICUUk3qhx4z76gxlmPrUYHkXvPLqMHURVbamtTTm08M1FEpXbM6C3P4u3DwhqSdFioN25kH67mzQYdvt8_7FOxDLX6m5gB4rVNhdk9F4VcCFWlJm7TMuLWo2HwxnEr6Q7_t8/s400/CBS_Evening_News_with_Cronkite%252C_1968.png" width="400" /></a></div>
The fourth and final way to get around the fact that many people dislike political content is to restrict people's media choices so that they have very little choice but to consume political news. This was the economic model of network television newscasts from the 1950s until the 1980s. As Markus Prior has <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Post-Broadcast-Democracy-Inequality-Involvement-Psychology/dp/0521675332/">shown</a>, in the network television era, households had very few options when the network evening news aired. Most household televisions in the 1950s and 1960s could pick up three channels or less, which tended to air all network evening news broadcasts at the same time, leaving no escape. Few other media options existed. Hardly any households had cable, and obviously none could go to the internet for news or entertainment. Even independent stations were rare, and often carried on UHF frequencies, which had weaker signals and which many televisions in use couldn't even receive through the late-1960s. With these limited options, many people watched network political news who would have preferred less political content. And networks faced very little pressure to reduce the amount of political news on their broadcasts (i.e. make them more entertaining) in order to keep their audience. This only works when people have (from a modern perspective) very limited choices. When choices increased, the network evening news audience shrunk, especially among younger generations, causing these programs to reduce the percentage of political content per show to try to compete.<br />
<br />
It is easy to hector journalists and say that news organizations should cover things this way or that way. But it is important to keep in mind that American news organizations have always operated within this basic limitation that only a minority of folks want to consume lots of political information. News organizations need to adopt one of these four strategies (or some combination of them) in order to stay in business.<br />
<div>
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><b><i>Update 8/25/2015: </i></b></span><br />
<br />
I received a lot of great feedback since I posted this. I'd like to share and respond to some of the comments. First, someone pointed out to me that in 2009 Jay Rosen put together a very comprehensive list of 21 different ways to subsidize news production. <a href="http://jayrosen.tumblr.com/post/243813457/sources-of-subsidy-in-the-production-of-news-a">Here</a> it is. I still think that my four categories cover the vast majority of political news operations, but Rosen mentions some things that I didn't cover. It is worth taking a look.<br />
<br />
Second, several people asked me how Fox News and conservative talk radio fit into this. That is a good question. It is another type of bundling that I didn't mention: bundling political information with inducements to outrage and ideological solidarity. There certainly is political information provided by these media. But the new information takes up a small percentage of the broadcasts. They way these programs are made entertaining is, as Jeffrey Berry and Sarah Sobieraj describe in their book <i><a href="http://www.amazon.com/The-Outrage-Industry-Political-Incivility/dp/0199928975">The Outrage Industry</a></i>, by discussing and getting outraged about the news, and mad at ideological opponents. Ideological cheerleading can be quite entertaining, and is another way to subsidize news coverage.<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi99z_FiOJ45UaPuEi09P-fgwkrsaHZgPocZNftHgBisGhRvoEZBeJaKjgXIqymeUSmHCEMP0JCiNFsvc4GHMTGZpmlFQDqIM0bg2qOKNQeC7AfXAq4Ii-34yX3-ri-tnjlWYVPmzYmBo0/s1600/npr_news_icon.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi99z_FiOJ45UaPuEi09P-fgwkrsaHZgPocZNftHgBisGhRvoEZBeJaKjgXIqymeUSmHCEMP0JCiNFsvc4GHMTGZpmlFQDqIM0bg2qOKNQeC7AfXAq4Ii-34yX3-ri-tnjlWYVPmzYmBo0/s1600/npr_news_icon.png" /></a></div>
<br />
Finally, a few people asked about the business model of National Public Radio. This is a bit complicated. The public radio system overall is subsidized by the federal government (through the Corporation for Public Broadcasting (CPB)), state and local governments, donations from private individuals and foundations, universities that own affiliate stations, and advertising/underwriting. But the national and local government support is not necessary to keep in business the national NPR organizations or the NPR affiliates in most major cities. Without government subsidies, many rural NPR affiliates would probably need to shut down, but the national organization and the major urban affiliates could continue, funded mainly through donations, grants and sometimes universities.<br />
<br />
But these are still subsidies. If it wanted to, could NPR survive through advertising alone? Given its audience size, it seems that it could. NPR is actually one of the media success stories of the past 30 years. While network news and conventional newspapers declined or stagnated in audience, NPR has grown. As Pew's State of the Media annual reports have documented, NPR went from an average weekly audience of 6.98 million in 1985 to 14.7 million in 2000 to 26.2 million <a href="http://www.journalism.org/2015/04/29/public-broadcasting-fact-sheet/">in 2014</a>. That's on top of 28 million unique monthly hits on its web site and 54 million podcast monthly listeners. If a transition to a commercial business model didn't reduce these audience numbers too much, this is probably enough to support the national network and major metro area affiliates through advertising.<br />
<br />
NPR's audience growth is a bit of a puzzle, because pretty much every other form of media that reports in a similar style has faced audience declines in the past 30 years, while NPR's audience has gone the other direction. It shows that, while the audience for this type of news is not as big as the network news' audience in the decades when folks had no choice but to tune in, it is enough to sustain a viable commercial business. If the public radio system ever did give up subsidies from government, foundations, and private individuals and moved to an advertising only model, they could provide a rare exception to the generalizations I make above. They could be a fifth viable business model. The key for them seems to be to have very high brand recognition and very positive reputation <a href="http://www.journalism.org/interactives/media-polarization/table/trust/">among liberals</a> interested in political news. That's not an easy task. But if you can do it, that audience should be enough.</div>
Jonathan Laddhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06955356509335317576noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8925493305476056067.post-54557222440620217982015-08-18T18:23:00.000-04:002015-08-18T18:46:15.467-04:00What Hillary Clinton Should Learn From Donald Trump: Nothing<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgCOC3E-7X6zJHdGOI0TAzNlL-GxOusGk8RzAM1X9t3tXE0k4qprZ3A5Bib4fpxC2MGMdqPPY2oZBV7-YQ-x82mWADPpn0MDctLnD5tU4BQdgrELi7PqkExTQ63kYVyy2Xmfdbo40x2PE1u/s1600/dem-2016-clinton.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="266" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgCOC3E-7X6zJHdGOI0TAzNlL-GxOusGk8RzAM1X9t3tXE0k4qprZ3A5Bib4fpxC2MGMdqPPY2oZBV7-YQ-x82mWADPpn0MDctLnD5tU4BQdgrELi7PqkExTQ63kYVyy2Xmfdbo40x2PE1u/s400/dem-2016-clinton.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
<span style="font-size: x-small;">by Seth Masket</span><br />
<br />
This week has seen one of the inevitable freakouts about Hillary Clinton's campaign. After all, her polling numbers are dropping (to right around the levels they were at the last time she ran for president), and her main rival for the Democratic nomination, Bernie Sanders, is drawing record crowds at his rallies. Perhaps, suggests <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2015/08/18/maybe-hillary-clinton-just-isnt-a-very-good-candidate/?postshare=1081439906073624" target="_blank">Chris Cillizza</a>, "Hillary Clinton just isn't a very good candidate." <a href="http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/08/17/hillary-clinton-should-ask-herself-what-would-donald-trump-do.html" target="_blank">Jonathan Alter</a> opines that if she wants to save her campaign, perhaps she should adopt the campaign stylings of Donald Trump, tossing aside calculation and preparation in favor of spontaneity and "authenticity." Meanwhile, the<i> Guardian's</i> <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/aug/17/hillary-clinton-white-house-too-much-baggage?CMP=fb_gu" target="_blank">Mary Dejevsky</a> urges Clinton to end her campaign now before she suffers a humiliating defeat.<br />
<br />
Let's all take a breath. If you were to take all the declared candidates for president right now and assign them a probability that they will be the 45th president of the United States (multiplying their chances of winning their party's nomination by their chances of winning the general election should they be nominated), Hillary Clinton would have to be at the top of that list, and Donald Trump would have to be right near the bottom. To restate: Hillary Clinton is more likely to become president than anyone else currently running. That may well change. Once the Republicans have converged around a nominee, that person will likely have a similar probability of winning to Clinton's, and may even surpass hers. But right now, if you had to be any presidential candidate, she's the one to be.<br />
<br />
Why is this the case, even though it seems to fly in the face of current polling trends?<br />
<br />
1. Polling this early in an election cycle is notoriously unreliable, and people's passions may shift around quite a bit as they learn about the candidates. Remember the inevitable nominations of Rick Santorum, Newt Gingrich, and Herman Cain in 2012?<br />
2. Everything we know about the last four decades of presidential nominations suggests that insider support is the key. Clinton has that. Sanders doesn't. That doesn't mean Sanders can't win a caucus or primary here and there -- he very well might. But ultimately Clinton has all the right resources for winning her party's nomination. For the same reason, Donald Trump is highly unlikely to win his party's nomination, which is more likely to go to Bush, Rubio, or Walker.<br />
3. Clinton remains highly popular within her party. While Trump is currently polling first among Republican candidates, a substantial portion of Republicans claim they could <i>never</i> support him. Right now, that portion of the party is split among 16 other candidates, so he looks comparatively good. But once that field winnows, it crushes him.<br />
<br />
We can certainly expect more of this kind of coverage in the months to come. After all, just saying "Clinton is the favorite for the nomination" every day is boring, and no one wants to read or write that. But the idea that Clinton should massively retool a campaign that is actually winning is silly.<br />
<br />
Oh, and I still don't know what "<a href="http://www.psmag.com/politics-and-law/presidential-candidates-politics-bankruptcy-authenticity-84641" target="_blank">authenticity</a>" is or how a candidate could get it by completely changing her beliefs and demeanor. But the fact that Donald Trump is perceived as having it should tell you all you need to know about it.Seth Maskethttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17178036016555722068noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8925493305476056067.post-66524536338081328362015-08-15T09:26:00.000-04:002015-08-15T10:11:30.222-04:00"Equal and exact justice": the politics of giving up power <div class="MsoNormal">
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh66fb0bFxr0x_4voW4UwdfFDDirWouIsAQfRyyu-f16qj9kQ02FmQUDfeoX6tEXuGR9V7qRyecVw8IXEkLvGj1rX3lOQAuXrs0eVADDHetbChgNbGe6sZFuImZF2AkHxG7unCoR8vmmWI/s1600/James_Polk_.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh66fb0bFxr0x_4voW4UwdfFDDirWouIsAQfRyyu-f16qj9kQ02FmQUDfeoX6tEXuGR9V7qRyecVw8IXEkLvGj1rX3lOQAuXrs0eVADDHetbChgNbGe6sZFuImZF2AkHxG7unCoR8vmmWI/s320/James_Polk_.jpg" width="265" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: xx-small;">by Julia Azari </span><br />
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman";"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">This morning the
story broke that Joe Biden is considering running for president – but only for
<a href="http://politicalwire.com/2015/08/14/biden-may-pledge-one-term-presidency-if-he-runs/">one term</a>. Meanwhile Lawrence Lessig <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/view_from_chicago/2015/08/lawrence_lessig_presidential_campaign_donate_before_labor_day_for_citizen.html?wpsrc=sh_all_tab_tw_bot">promises</a> to resign the presidency after his
“Citizen Equality Act” is signed into law. Neither of these promises is likely
to come to fruition; it’s not clear Biden is actually running at all, and
Lessig’s candidacy, focused on a single issue, is hardly mainstream. The
recurring trope of giving up power, on the other hand, is one that resonates
with the way people often talk about what’s wrong with American politics. And in
contrast with a lot of ill-conceived ideas about dysfunction in politics that
are floating around, questions about how long presidents spend in office touch
on some real issues: appropriate limits on executive power, and the difficulty
of mixing an office like the presidency with deep political divisions. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Presidential
tenure in office has been a tricky proposition from the beginning. At the Constitutional
convention, there were a wide range of proposals about how long presidential
terms should be. There were a bunch of issues tied into this, like
reeligibility and who would choose the president. But one of the considerations
was placing reasonable limits on the power of any single individual. Thinking
just about this question, short terms would seem to be the best option. A different stream of opinion placed the emphasis instead on stability. Alexander
Hamilton (whose ideas about a lifetime term for presidents pending "good behavior" didn’t get much
traction at the Convention) made the case for “energy in the executive” in <i>Federalist
#71</i> and <i>72</i>: <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #262626; font-size: 11.0pt;">To reverse and undo what has been done by a predecessor, is
very often considered by a successor as the best proof he can give of his own
capacity and desert; and in addition to this propensity, where the alteration
has been the result of public choice, the person substituted is warranted in
supposing that the dismission of his predecessor has proceeded from a dislike
to his measures; and that the less he resembles him, the more he will recommend
himself to the favor of his constituents. (From <i>Federalist #72</i>)</span> </span></blockquote>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">(Evidently Hamilton felt the same way about sentences as he did about presidential tenure.)</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #262626;">The
basic issue here is that while it’s good to have alternation in power, there
are real costs to having new personnel or to reversing policy directions. The
resulting four year terms with reeligibility represents a compromise between
these two conflicting considerations. </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Only a handful presidents have run for more than
two terms and only one, FDR, has actually served
more than two terms.* Scholars actually identify the origin of the two-term norm
as Thomas Jefferson’s voluntary departure in 1809, at which point he cited
Washington’s example. Voluntary abdications and peaceful alternations of power
are, cynicism aside, quite remarkable. They are especially important when we
consider the unilateral, hierarchical power of the executive branch. <o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Although giving
up power after two terms has been standard, pledging only a single term has
been more rare. Only two presidents, James K. Polk and Rutherford B. Hayes, have
declined to seek a second nomination.** (Phillip Bump <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2015/08/14/joe-biden-and-the-history-of-the-one-term-pledge-gimmick/">points out</a> that William Henry Harrison did this too but he died in office before he could fulfill this promise.)
Polk’s reasons for making a one-term pledge, which he did during the 1844
campaign, had to do with two things: the ongoing debate about the proper and
legitimate role of the presidency, and the increasingly tense divisions within
his own party. The one-term pledge allowed Polk to co-opt a Whig plank – one of the central founding ideas for the Whig Party was a limited executive,
and the single term idea had become a concrete manifestation of that, as we see
with WHH’s promise. (See Walter Borneman’s <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Polk-Man-Transformed-Presidency-America/dp/0812976746">account</a> of the 1844 election) <o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">But the other
issue for Polk was the dynamics within his own party. In 1844, the slavery
issue hadn’t flared up the way it would in the 1850s. It was nevertheless contentious,
and it divided Democrats (mostly, but not entirely, along predictable geographic lines). The party was also split over the annexation of Texas. Polk’s promise
to his party was to distribute patronage with “equal and exact justice” toward
each faction. His one-term pledge was part of this; because he was not seeking
renomination, he didn’t need to worry about gaining favored status with any
particular group within the party. (See <a href="http://www.hup.harvard.edu/catalog.php?isbn=9780674689374">Skowronek 1997</a>, 161). <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Although the
specifics of the context were different, Rutherford B. Hayes used the one-term
pledge to deal with the same two basic challenges. His legitimacy problem came
from the troubled election of 1876, in which the Electoral College failed to
produce a clear winner, accusations of fraud and disenfranchisement in Southern
states abounded, and a probably-unconstitutional commission came together to
decide the contested states. The deals that brought this near-crisis to an end also
included the removal of Northern troops from the South, and the end of
Reconstruction. The subsequent Hayes presidency was shaped in part by an
interest in healing sectional divisions. While Polk contended with divisions in
his own party, Hayes led the Republicans in a situation in which the two
parties were basically divided from each other along sectional lines. For
strategic reasons, the Republicans started to think about cultivating support
in the South in order to avoid being a “sectional party” rather than a national
one (see Edward O. Frantz, <a href="http://www.amazon.com/The-Door-Hope-Republican-Perspectives/dp/0813044472"><i>The Door of Hope</i></a>, p. 61). The Republican Party was
also pretty divided internally, and Hayes’ efforts to build support in the
South were controversial and disruptive. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">What does all of
this have to do with contemporary pledges to voluntarily leave office? First,
returning to the Founding questions, the governing stakes of stability are that
much higher now. Alternations of power are healthy and welcome, but one feature
of recent transitions that stands out is that there’s usually more continuity,
especially in foreign policy, than many people expect or seek. Note, for example, that Robert
Gates stayed on as Secretary of Defense for several years into the Obama
administration. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The scenario Lessig describes, while likely not
involving much Cabinet change, would be highly destabilizing. While the
presidency is an institution, the president as an individual is a pretty
important figure in terms of both symbolism and actual decision-making. <o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Some accounts of
Biden’s claim of single-term plans also suggest some rhetoric about “uniting
the nation.” Pretty much all presidents suggest they want to do this at some
point. And pretty much all of them fail at it. The last two presidencies
have been especially rough in this regard (both the promising and the failing).
One thing that serious candidates for the presidency – and their political
handlers – should think about is what to do once you’ve won the election and half
the country hates everything you do. Each president has faced major political divisions
– some more serious than others. But the office offers its occupants limited tools for addressing this. It’s worth noting, however, that neither Polk nor Hayes was able to
use the one-term pledge to resolve the legitimacy and division challenges they faced. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Neither these
pledges nor the candidacies they’re attached to are likely to make much of a
difference in 2016. They do, however, speak to long-standing tensions in the presidency.
Democracy calls for alternations of power, while governance demands stability. The
presidency was designed with statesmanship and neutral administration in mind,
but political reality has never conformed to that vision. In light of current
debates about presidential power and about the country’s political divisions,
it’s not terribly surprising that voluntary abdication would be part of the
conversation. At the same time, it would be a mistake to see these kinds of promises as real
solutions to the problems of governance. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-small;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">*This category actually gets sort of complicated. There's FDR, of course, and Theodore Roosevelt who broke his own promise not to run after stepping down in 1909. Grover Cleveland lost reelection in 1888 and ran again in 1892. Other presidents ran for reelection having already run once and lost - Jefferson, Jackson, Nixon. It's not clear if this counts under the conceptual category I'm trying to establish. Many thanks to Matt Glassman for geeking out with me over this question in the preparation of this post. Anything inaccurate or stupid is my fault solely, though. </span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-small;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-small;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">**A</span> number of sitting presidents sought and were denied renomination- see <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1741-5705.2005.00274.x/abstract">Klinghard 2005</a>. </span></div>
Julia Azari http://www.blogger.com/profile/06982342794900306791noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8925493305476056067.post-51632207915304589782015-08-10T10:57:00.000-04:002015-08-10T15:18:58.893-04:00Thursday night's real loser? Ronald Reagan <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiUJYIMi0CcrT4lWialUzIsChynlguKtu6D-mZT-js3O79mFEPgDTDU2ZB3pBXgw3HCSCeCHOf2ESpzm-k8wBSRZqT4f_7Fb-CiMTr_SNwTzXDzJRV01KAmy5SOUhZB4hn1VIPJ3SK7pxU/s1600/40_ronald_reagan.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="180" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiUJYIMi0CcrT4lWialUzIsChynlguKtu6D-mZT-js3O79mFEPgDTDU2ZB3pBXgw3HCSCeCHOf2ESpzm-k8wBSRZqT4f_7Fb-CiMTr_SNwTzXDzJRV01KAmy5SOUhZB4hn1VIPJ3SK7pxU/s320/40_ronald_reagan.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-size: xx-small;">by Julia Azari </span><br />
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"It took Jimmy Carter to give us Ronald Reagan." - Ted Cruz <br />
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Ok, so the title is a bit of an exaggeration. But it provides a framework for what are, Donald Trump's antics notwithstanding, some of the biggest questions about Thursday's debate. These questions include: what is the state of Republican ideology? What kinds of governing ideas is the party offering? And with 17 candidates vying for the nomination, what are the questions that divide the party? As they anticipate an election without an incumbent, after eight years of a Democratic president, how do GOP candidates position themselves in relation to the past? Obviously, breaking away from the Obama presidency is a key idea, at least in the <a href="http://www.vox.com/2015/8/7/9115651/republican-debate-obamacare-repeal">abstract</a>.<br />
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Affirming the legacy of their own party is a more complex matter. As I've noted here, the leading candidates in the field have had a tough time figuring out their <a href="http://www.mischiefsoffaction.com/2015/05/by-julia-azari-last-week-wasnta-great.html">relationship</a> to the Iraq War and the Bush foreign policy legacy.<br />
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Bush is a risky point of reference - recent and controversial. Much more common in Republican discourse is Ronald Reagan, whose skillful rhetoric helped bring socially conservative ideas into the party mainstream and integrate them with economic conservatism, developed a narrative of national strength, and provided the ideological basis of a new Republican era. There was, of course, discussion on Twitter of the pervasiveness of Reagan reference from the candidates. (Paul Waldman at <i>The Week</i> notes that Reagan <a href="http://theweek.com/articles/570755/are-republicans-falling-love-ronald-reagan">mentions</a> were sparse, though.) NPR's Lauren Leatherby <a href="http://www.npr.org/sections/itsallpolitics/2015/08/08/430366932/the-first-gop-presidential-debate-by-the-numbers?utm_source=facebook.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=npr&utm_term=nprnews&utm_content=20150808">includes</a> Reagan references in her "by the numbers" analysis (although, as I show below, my estimate is slightly different from hers). <br />
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Behold, evidence of why I did not pursue a career in graphic design</td></tr>
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In order to put Thursday's debate in context, I counted Reagan references in Republican primary debates leading up to the 2000, 2008, and 2012 elections, as well as last week's two Republican debates. Using the data available on the <a href="http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/">American Presidency Project</a>, I searched for "Reagan" in each debate transcript. I tried to condense the data down to unique mentions, which is to say that if a candidate mentioned Reagan multiple times in the same paragraph, talking about the same issue (which happens pretty frequently), I counted that as one reference. Some observations: <br />
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1. Reagan references were, in broad comparison, somewhat sparse in the first 2015 debates. By my count, there were five unique Reagan references in the prime time debate. The difference between my count and Leatherby's is accounted for by the fact that she counts two Reagan mentions in the same paragraph as two separate instances. There were more in the undercard debate (6) than the later one, but even if you add them together, it hardly stands out. <br />
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2. The number of Reagan references varies quite a bit. This is somewhat true over election seasons: the average number of unique Reagan references in the 2000 debates was 5.1; for 2008 it was 9.9; and for 2012 it was about 6.5. <br />
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Within election seasons, we see much greater variation. Some of the debates in the chart above were held at the Reagan Library, and these tended to be heavy on Reagan references. In one of the two (!) 2008 season debates held there, the candidates were asked whether and why Reagan would endorse them, and so that added to mention count (bringing it to 38, or almost 4 times what we saw on Thursday in both debates). So that explains some of the variation. But not all of it. Only one of the forty-seven debates listed here lacked any Reagan references, but lots of them had only a few. This even includes a debate held in 2011 in which the candidates responded to a clip of Reagan talking about deficits. <br />
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3. The variation fits what <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Presidential-Leadership-Political-Time-Reappraisal/dp/0700617620">political time</a> predicts (See also, <a href="http://www.amazon.com/The-Politics-Presidents-Make-Leadership/dp/0674689372">Skowronek 1997</a>). The high point of Reagan references comes when there's a two-term Republican incumbent about to leave office. In 2000, Republican candidates can present their ideas in terms of moving away from the Clinton years. In 2012, it's all about rejecting Obama's presidency. In 2000, however, we observe some wrangling over what the Reagan legacy means. For example, Gary Bauer (who mentioned his service in the Reagan administration at every possible opportunity), asked George W. Bush:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
"Governor, I worked for Ronald Reagan for eight years, and he never gave the Soviet Union most favored nation status. He always insisted on progress on human rights and national security. Our new challenge is China. They persecute their people; arrest those who practice their religion; forcible abortions, et cetera. And yet you've embraced the policy of Clinton and Gore. You want to give them most favored nation status and membership in the World Trade Organization. Why not follow a Reagan policy instead of a Clintonian policy?" </blockquote>
The theory of political time explains this in terms of two factors. First, with a Republican incumbent, it's harder for Republican candidates to present themselves in opposition to the status quo. They need another point of reference to justify and contextualize their ideas. Second, presidents like Bush, who "articulate" the values of the most recent reconstructive party leader, often create controversy over the real meaning of the party's ideological heritage. In one of the 2008 debates, Romney and McCain <a href="http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/index.php?pid=29427">argued</a> over the legacy of Reagan's foreign policy; throughout the debates that year, candidates tried to apply visions of Reagan's legacy to economic and social policy questions as well.<br />
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4. Not all Reagan references signify the same thing. Most - but not all - references are symbolic and about ideological debate. Typical Reagan references touch on his vision for the nation, the Reagan "revolution" or the return to national strength.<br />
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But there are exceptions. Mike Huckabee noted in a January 2008 debate that even Reagan made mistakes, citing the "amnesty" issue in immigration policy. And Donald Trump, in the midst of many more controversial remarks, pointed out on Thursday that Reagan "evolved" on policy issues. This statement isn't so much noteworthy for its substance, but rather for the fact that Trump referred to Reagan as an actual human politician rather than a symbolic figure.<br />
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It's important not to read too much into Thursday's debate, but looking back over the prime time transcript, the Reagan references fall into two categories. There are the purely symbolic ones, like Ted Cruz's statement that the American hostages held in Iran were released the day Reagan was inaugurated.* And there are the ones that invoke Reagan to move <i>away</i> from the mainstream conservative positions on issues. Rand Paul spoke about how Reagan negotiated with the Soviets; Kasich talked about Reagan's expansion of Medicaid. This, too, is indicative of disjunctive politics - evidence of a party that is simultaneously trying to affirm and reexamine ideological commitments (Waldman <a href="http://theweek.com/articles/570755/are-republicans-falling-love-ronald-reagan">points</a> this out too).</div>
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5. Lots of questions remain. It would also be useful to know whether Reagan references are made at similar rates by different types of candidates, which issues they're associated with, etc. But this gives us a sense that at least in this first debate, Reagan's prominence as a reference point was, in comparison with the recent past, about average at best. The next debate is at the Reagan Library, so we'll see what happens then. <br />
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<span style="font-size: x-small;">*A debt of gratitude is owed here to Lauren Leatherby for helping me figure out that I was looking at an incomplete transcript. </span></div>
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Julia Azari http://www.blogger.com/profile/06982342794900306791noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8925493305476056067.post-26500216857178708542015-08-07T22:46:00.001-04:002015-08-07T23:17:59.257-04:00Trump's Rump Party<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">"It's Cool, I'm With That Guy."</td></tr>
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<span style="font-size: xx-small;">By John W. Patty</span><br />
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<i>Note: I'm not pulling the term "Rump" out of thin air: "<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rump_party">rump party</a>" is the term for what's left behind after a party experiences a major splintering.</i></blockquote>
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Well, the <a href="http://t.co/VqIu1dWB6d">Clash in Cleveland</a> is over, the <a href="http://www.politico.com/story/2015/08/politico-caucus-republican-debate-donald-trump-biggest-loser-121146.html">results are in</a>, and the <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/donald-trump-won-the-gop-debate-heres-where-to-stock-up-on-canned-food-and-ammunition_55c4444ee4b0923c12bc6c3c">post-mortems</a>...<a href="http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/debate-shows-trump-will-be-trump-not-bow-political-conventions-n405686">have</a>...<a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/08/07/did_trump_win_or_lose_the_fox_news_debate_the_instant_polls_and_ratings.html">begun</a>. What to make of it? There were stylistic differences, of course, and in a few cases expectations were violated (Rubio, better; Bush, worse) or confirmed (Paul, panicked; Carson, quiet). But the real deal, ahem, the Art of the Deal, was Donald Trump.<br />
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I won't pretend to analyze what Trump said, or even how it played...beyond one simple point. Trump's predictably well-noticed refusal to rule out a run as an independent if he doesn't win the GOP nomination was completely predictable ... AND ABSOLUTE GENIUS. The genius is reified in his seeming throw-away quip,<br />
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"...<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: 'Open Sans', sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 19px; text-align: justify;">if I am the nominee, I will pledge that I will not run as an Independent..."</span></blockquote>
I have no idea if he was trying to be funny, but it's really awesome to see someone so brazenly make it about himself/herself. I mean, running for president is easily in the top 5 or so indicators of one's self-involvement...but part of "the game" of doing so is at least pretending that it's <i>not</i> about oneself. One is supposed to talk about how hard it is to sign up for this job: the sacrifice, the toll on one's family, the psychological and emotional drain one endures as the leader of the free world, yadda yadda. Not Trump: he publicly wants to win it, sure, as a Republican, why not? But he wants to win it. Doubt that? YOU'RE FIRED.<br />
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Will Trump follow through on this? I mean, will he (actively) run through the convention, regardless of how the GOP primaries treat him? I don't know. But what I do know is this: the GOP establishment needs to start thinking about the Trump Rump: estimate what/who will remain if Trump does mount (or starts to appear as if he might actually need/be willing to mount) an independent campaign, and how to organize those remnants into a credible campaign behind whomever wins the GOP nomination.<br />
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Because only one person can win the presidency, this dilemma for the GOP indirectly introduces the interesting aspect of timing for Trump. That is, how will (or should) Trump make his decision(s) about standing with or splitting off from the GOP? Sure, Trump is leading by "a lot" right now, but not by nearly enough to treat the nomination as a sure-thing. So there are three scenarios, two of which are interesting. <br />
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<b>Scenario 1: </b><b>Trump Shoots the Moon. </b>The first, and least interesting, is that Trump continues to pull away for the next 6 months and eventually dons the mantle of nominee-apparent. That raises a very interesting general election (and interesting questions for the Democrats), but otherwise falls into the "normal category" for the GOP primary electorate: fall behind the winner once one has emerged, and conserve the energy/unity for the general elections.<br />
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<b>Scenario 2: </b><b>Trump Loses The Lead. </b>The second scenario involves Trump's leader status coming into serious question only after a clear "second alternative" has emerged. To make this concrete, suppose that all but one of the other 16 leading candidates eventually announce that they are stepping aside, leaving only one candidate running against Trump for the nomination. Suppose also that this candidate has a strong base of support similar to Trump's.<br />
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What should Trump do? Trump can either (1) battle the establishment in a costly primary or (2) announce that he's running as an independent, saving his efforts to reach across the aisle and start running his general election campaign. Money's not an issue for him (so he says), so he doesn't need the nomination in any direct fashion. (Getting on the ballot is an issue, but I'll assume he can spend enough to make that happen in the relevant states). So why fight for it?<br />
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Well, the difficulty of running as an independent at this point is that Trump has "allowed" the GOP to coalesce behind a common candidate---and this coalescence within the GOP might have been aided by the unifying threat presented by Trump's very pursuit of the GOP nomination. That is, if he had left before the party coalesced behind a common "second candidate," then the fight for the GOP nomination might have been more protracted, less focused on Trump, and cost his eventual general election candidate "from the right" more money and energy. <br />
<br />
Given that the conservative end of the spectrum is where he would presumably draw from for his votes in the general, this line of argument suggests that Trump might benefit from leaving the GOP nomination race before the "establishment" circles their wagons. But...<br />
<br />
<b>Scenario 3: Trump Faces A Tough Distribution. </b>On the other hand, if Trump starts running as an independent early on, then he loses a lot of access that only one of the two major parties can provide. In other words, outside the party, there's no "party." For example, he would presumably not be invited to GOP debates like last night's. He wouldn't be discussed in the same type of soft-touch tones as he was by all but Paul last night. And, finally, as an avowed independent unwilling to fight for the GOP nomination, Trump would presumably face more pressure about the credibility of both his dedication to the campaign and his conservative <i>bona fides</i>.<br />
<br />
<b>What Should the GOP Do?</b> In the end (and presuming that the majority of the GOP does not want Trump to be the nominee), the GOP establishment needs to think about how to get to scenario 2 as quickly as possible. In essence, they need to think about how to run the nomination process with Trump in it as if it were the nomination process <i>without</i> Trump. (They have been trying to do this, in a somewhat disorganized way.) This will preserve the resources and focus of the GOP for the discussion and strategizing that is required for the general election fight. Furthermore, it will distance the eventual nominee from the difficulties of both being associated with, and generally having to figure out "how to deal with" Trump's positions. The question at hand is how can the GOP establishment (which now includes the Tea Party) excommunicate Trump without appearing to dismiss him. (As <a href="http://www.mischiefsoffaction.com/2015/07/judge-party-by-whom-it-nominates-not-by.html">Seth Masket reminds us</a>, it's a delicate and difficult business to dismiss a candidate from a party in the US.)<br />
<br />
In the end, though, unless Scenario 1 unfolds, GOP supporters need to start thinking about the GOP's Trump Rump. What that would look like---who would "leave the GOP" for Trump, who would fight for the GOP <i>because</i> Trump left (think "immigration," "gender," "proudly bald," and so forth)---is unclear at this point, but that's kind of my point: even if Trump isn't 100% certain to follow through on his threat to run (even briefly) as an independent, the fact that he might---definitely made more credible by both his statement in the debate and the perception of his performance/reception at the debate---changes the calculus not just of one player, but of no fewer than 16---all of whom the GOP collectively needs to be concerned about.<br />
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<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8925493305476056067.post-75805459534443423792015-08-07T13:04:00.000-04:002015-08-07T13:04:54.097-04:00A Trumped Up Debate<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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by Richard Skinner</div>
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<div class="MsoNormal">
<img alt="Image result for "donald trump"" class="rg_i" data-sz="f" name="Z2UQJhmM0XG-vM:" 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To no one’s surprise, Donald Trump dominated last night’s
debate.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But perhaps more surprising was
that he spent much of his time clashing with the Fox News moderators.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Even after the debate, he seemed obsessed
with Megyn Kelly, who had the nerve to call him on his long history of
misogynist comments.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>(Like a lot of
loud-mouthed provocateurs, Trump has problems with women, both personally and
as a candidate).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Despite having no real
history as a conservative, Trump has enjoyed a warm relationship with the
conservative media, <a href="http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2015/08/donald-trump-affect-and-the-conservative-mind.html">perhaps
because he gives them the “affect” that fuels ratings: arrogance, resentment,
hostility</a>.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He appeals to the <a href="http://www.cambridge.org/us/academic/subjects/politics-international-relations/american-government-politics-and-policy/authoritarianism-and-polarization-american-politics?format=PB">authoritarian</a>
and <a href="http://www.slate.com/blogs/moneybox/2012/11/08/ethnocentric_budget_politics_racists_love_medicare_and_social_security.html">ethnocentric</a>
sentiments of the talk-radio audience – essentially, he is the living
embodiment of “white male privilege.”<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><a href="http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/donald-trump-wont-win-a-war-against-fox-news/">But
now he has tangled with the most prominent conservative media outlet of all.</a><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Is Fox News acting as an element in the
Republican Party network, trying to purge the race of a toxic candidate?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Maybe</i>.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><a href="http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2015/08/donald-trumps-newest-enemy-fox-news.html">Is
it a great idea for Trump to feud with the media source most trusted by
Republican voters?</a><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Not anymore than
it was for Joe McCarthy to attack the U.S. Army.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But nobody can censure Trump.</div>
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<img alt="Image result for "donald trump" "megyn kelly"" class="rg_i" data-sz="f" name="h57LCXFYm12nkM:" 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" 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Trump’s refusal to rule out an independent run could be a
double-edged sword.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It might make some
Republicans wary of attacking him – while Trump’s ideological incoherence makes
predictions difficult, a third-party run by him would <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">probably</i> hurt the GOP more.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>But trying to “handle” Trump seems like a fool’s errand.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>On the other hand, asking candidates to sign
a “loyalty oath” might be a good way for Republicans to keep Trump out of
campaign events.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And the Fox moderators
repeatedly showed how Trump can be attacked from the Right.</div>
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<img alt="Image result for "donald trump" "marco rubio"" class="rg_i" data-sz="f" name="0ONbbxqFdLvksM:" 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" 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<a href="http://mashable.com/2015/08/07/gop-debate-ratings/">Public
fascination with Trump boosted the Clash in Cleveland’s audience to perhaps the
highest ever for a nomination-stage debate</a>.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>But Trump so dominated the proceedings that I doubt any other candidate
really broke through.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Observers seem to
agree that Marco Rubio was the strongest performer.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I’m not sure that he will greatly help his
public standing, but his showing probably will assist his campaign make the
case to GOP insiders that the Florida senator would be a formidable
general-election candidate.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I guess John
Kasich started on a good foot with a national audience, but probably in a way
that appealed more to the media than to Republican activists.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>(But keep in mind that New Hampshire primary
voters are more moderate than the GOP norm).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Rand Paul got some attention for wrangling with Chris Christie on
foreign policy and surveillance, issues where he disagrees with most
Republicans.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He may have helped his
cause with his father’s libertarian base, while further alienating the broader
party.</div>
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<div class="MsoNormal">
<img alt="Image result for "donald trump" "jeb bush"" class="rg_i" data-sz="f" name="KYwW0QuHd8VCHM:" src="data:image/jpeg;base64,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" style="height: 180px; margin-left: -7px; margin-right: -11px; margin-top: 0px; width: 280px;" /> </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The other candidates neither helped nor hurt themselves.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Except for a poorly-thought out response on
Iraq, Jeb Bush performed well on substance (including on the hot-button issues
of immigration and Common Core), although he seemed surprisingly nervous and
low-key for a quasi-frontrunner.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But he
risked little and lost nothing.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Scott
Walker, the other candidate at the head of the pack, followed an even lower-key
path.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Mike Huckabee and Ted Cruz did
their usual schticks, and probably pleased their constituencies.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Until the very end, Ben Carson was almost
invisible.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Nobody performed badly enough
to seriously damage their chances.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<img alt="Image result for "donald trump" "fox news"" class="rg_i" data-sz="f" name="Po2uR6ak8YXG6M:" 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" style="height: 159px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: -28px; margin-top: 0px; width: 318px;" /> </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
This will go down in history as one of the most entertaining
primary debates.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Perhaps it will mark a
turning point in the Summer of Trump – when he swerved toward an Independent
run, or when the Republican Party began to expel an intruder.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Maybe someday it will be counted as an early
step in the march of Marco Rubio to the White House.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But
like most debates, whatever effects it may have in the short run will probably
dissipate quickly.</div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07640783415940281769noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8925493305476056067.post-60445850804492434362015-08-04T23:38:00.004-04:002015-08-04T23:57:16.258-04:00Three, It's The Magic Number<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://thehill.com/sites/default/files/article_images/bush_trump_walker_gn.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://thehill.com/sites/default/files/article_images/bush_trump_walker_gn.jpg" height="360" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Three's Company</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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<span style="font-size: xx-small;">By John W. Patty</span></div>
<div style="color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: 24.375px; margin-bottom: 1.625em; text-align: right;">
<i>...And then there were ten...</i></div>
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<a data-mce-href="http://www.cbsnews.com/news/fox-news-announces-participants-in-first-2016-gop-debate/" href="http://www.cbsnews.com/news/fox-news-announces-participants-in-first-2016-gop-debate/" style="color: #1b8be0; font-stretch: normal; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: 1.625; text-decoration: none;">FOX News just announced the 10 candidates</a> chosen to participate in the first primetime Republican presidential primary debate this Thursday. As <a href="http://press.foxnews.com/2015/05/fox-news-and-facebook-partner-to-host-first-republican-presidential-primary-debate-of-2016-election/">announced here</a>, the field was decided by transparent and simple procedures and I think FOX News was right to choose a field size (in this case, top 10), as opposed to a threshold of public support (like, 10%). Within this setting I have <a href="http://www.mathofpolitics.com/2015/08/05/this-thursday-at-10-fox-news-is-correct/">argued elsewhere that 10 was the right number</a>, but I think it is useful to further consider if, given the benefit of hindsight, there was a less arbitrary size. </div>
<div style="color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: 24.375px; margin-bottom: 1.625em;">
The central concept I will use to consider this question is what I will call a <b style="font-style: italic;">consistent debate size</b>, which is defined as a number that satisfies the following condition.</div>
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Suppose that the number of candidates allowed in the debate is <i>N</i>. Then <i>N</i> is <i><b>consistent</b></i> if, in the last ten polls,[1] none of the <i>N</i> candidate included in the debate ranked lower than <i>N</i>th. </div>
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To understand a consistent debate size, I'll show how 10 was <i>not</i> consistent in this case. See Figure 1.</div>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEju6P-vTrbbOz5j4QANmwNxjaWwRLgXkjCs9od5uUcpM8uU_UR0tbU8QNcaKjJLylNBHD6uoE_-fdBgY6qUbsGk8UMNy0LshpfokdBwKbYcrnetidwfjzWxeA3mHyoSZNQrFWZssHoZFUU/s1600/Screenshot+2015-08-04+22.05.47.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEju6P-vTrbbOz5j4QANmwNxjaWwRLgXkjCs9od5uUcpM8uU_UR0tbU8QNcaKjJLylNBHD6uoE_-fdBgY6qUbsGk8UMNy0LshpfokdBwKbYcrnetidwfjzWxeA3mHyoSZNQrFWZssHoZFUU/s1600/Screenshot+2015-08-04+22.05.47.png" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b style="font-size: 12.8000001907349px;">Figure 1. </b><span style="font-size: 12.8000001907349px;">The 10 GOP Debaters And Their Rankings in the Last 10 Polls</span></td></tr>
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Each column of Figure 1 corresponds to a candidate, each row corresponds to one of the last 10 polls (<a data-mce-href="http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-national-gop-primary" href="http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-national-gop-primary" style="color: #1b8be0; font-stretch: normal; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: 1.625; text-decoration: none;">data available here</a>), and the number corresponds to that candidate's ranking in that poll (1 is first place, 2 is second place, and so forth).[2] Note that Trump led each of the past 10 polls. More importantly for my purposes, note that in fourth poll down (conducted by CBS 7/29-8/2), Ohio Governor John Kasich placed 12th. Thus, in the past 10 polls, Gov. Kasich placed outside of the top 10, meaning that 10 is <i><b>not</b></i> a consistent debate size. </div>
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By looking down the columns, it is pretty easy to find the consistent debate sizes for this data. They are:</div>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Helvetica Neue, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 15px; line-height: 24.375px;"><b> 1:</b> Trump has been the front-runner in each of the past 10 polls. While a debate consisting of only Donald Trump has <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Apprentice_(TV_series)">already proven successful</a>, it is arguable that one man debating himself is untenable, even on a 24 hour news channel.</span></span></div>
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<b style="color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 24.375px;"> </b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Helvetica Neue, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 15px; line-height: 24.375px;"><b>3:</b> Trump, Bush, and Walker have composed the top 3 throughout the past 2 weeks (plus). </span></span></div>
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<b style="color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 24.375px;"> 17: </b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 24.375px;">By definition, the "entire" field (effectively 17, according to the data linked above) is a consistent debate size. </span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 24.375px;">That's it. What's interesting about the data (if you take a chance to peek at it for a minute or so) is that 4-7 are </span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 24.375px;">each</span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 24.375px;">--in a sense--"close" to being consistent debate sizes: Huckabee, Cruz, and Rubio in particular "jump around" just enough (in an ordinal sense) over the past two weeks </span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 24.375px;">to make 4-7 inconsistent</span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 24.375px;">. </span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 24.375px;">This is indicative of, loosely speaking, is that Carson, Huckabee, Cruz, and Rubio are in their own category as candidates---a category that is defined by "significantly non-zero, non-double digit, support." The top three of Trump, Bush, and Walker can be defined as "double digit support,"[3] and the rest of the field can be characterized charitably as "sometimes positive support."</span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 24.375px;">What does this mean? Well, I think it says something about both the race to date and the race to come. The race to date has been one in which Walker and Bush (possibly stealthily followed by Carson) have been holding onto, and perhaps consolidating, support in these early but possibly pivotal months of the campaign---I just simply can not believe that Trump's support is "real" in the sense of being able to weather the high winds of the height of either the primary or general election campaigns (much less both).</span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 24.375px;">The race <i><b>to come</b></i> is even more interesting. There's a lot of wildcards in the next 7: Huckabee is kind of like the GOP's Howard Dean, Kasich is kind of like a 19th century "smart play," Rand Paul is...well, like Ron Paul but simultaneously more and less electable, and Cruz and Rubio seem destined for a cable reboot of the 1988 blockbuster <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twins_(1988_film)">Twins</a>. </span></div>
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<span style="color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 15px; line-height: 24.375px;">As I eat my popcorn and try to read tea leaves, I applaud FOX News for working to keep the race open in the face of the challenge of keeping the debate manageable. But there is a certain rigorous way to argue that <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aU4pyiB-kq0">three is the magic number</a>.</span></div>
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[1] I use 10 polls here for concreteness. One could use any number of polls, but the notion becomes less meaningful for very small numbers of polls and generally useless for very large numbers of polls. </div>
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[2] It doesn't really matter in these polls, but I omitted "Undecided" as a "candidate." Also, some ties have been broken arbitrarily, because the results I downloaded had been rounded. Luckily, this isn't brain surgery: it we miss a little, nobody dies. Right?</div>
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[3] Walker's support has been in the double digits for 7 of the past 10 polls, while Bush and Trump have enjoyed double digit support in all of the last 10 polls.</div>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8925493305476056067.post-86660660011769521102015-07-31T16:51:00.000-04:002015-07-31T22:38:02.042-04:00"Laugh about it, shout about it, when you've got to choose": political science and presidential debates <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh3zxk8FJCzmIeDmqIh0mj2g_6ER9udXU0zkUljZpjbThXA6Gm4CovvZ-N0TcBQjQkEJg_QgJKpAMnP9f87QZtKT4k6BSsV18CqDGruPw97wQGCi7u_Kua5KJ9dIx_dHHtwbIPAx-Qk78M/s1600/Republican+debate.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="263" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh3zxk8FJCzmIeDmqIh0mj2g_6ER9udXU0zkUljZpjbThXA6Gm4CovvZ-N0TcBQjQkEJg_QgJKpAMnP9f87QZtKT4k6BSsV18CqDGruPw97wQGCi7u_Kua5KJ9dIx_dHHtwbIPAx-Qk78M/s400/Republican+debate.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-size: xx-small;">By Julia Azari</span></div>
<br /><span style="font-size: xx-small;"></span>
The seventeen Republican presidential candidates are currently competing for the ten available slots in next week’s debate, hosted by Fox News in Cleveland. Some of the attention thus far has been on the <a href="http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/who-would-you-invite-to-the-first-republican-debate/?ex_cid=538fb">formula </a>for determining who gets to participate, and who will be relegated to the 5pm “early” debate for those who don’t get a prime-time slot. But in all the jockeying for a top debate spot, it’s easy to lose sight of some of the more substantive questions about the role and impact of debates. Debates tend to produce a few memorable lines and moments - Rick Perry’s memory lapse over which government agencies he would cut, Mitt Romney’s remark about “binders full of women,” Obama remark reassuring Hillary Clinton that she’s “likeable enough” in a 2008 primary debate, to name a few recent examples. But do debates actually have an impact on how political events unfold? This question has obvious implications for (scholarly, usually untelevised) debates in political science about whether campaigns matter and about who really drives presidential nominations, primary voters or party elites. They also, of course, have implications for what, if anything, the debates scheduled in 2015 and 2016, will mean for the nomination contest. So here’s a brief overview of what we know, what we don’t know, and what it might all mean in the 2016 context. <br />
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<i>Learning </i><br />
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The political science literature is fairly consistent in the finding that watching debates contributes to respondents’ knowledge about the candidates. These effects depend, unsurprisingly, on what people already know about candidates. Tom Holbrooke finds that people <a href="http://link.springer.com/article/10.1023/A:1023348513570">learn</a> more about candidates with whom they are less familiar, and, in a study that compares watching a debate to listening to it, Jamie Druckman <a href="http://faculty.wcas.northwestern.edu/~jnd260/pub/Druckman%20JOP%202003.pdf">finds</a> bigger differences among the “unsophisticated” participants.<br />
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For 2016 primaries, this probably means that the debates will work at cross-purposes when it comes to educating voters about the less prominent candidates in the race. We’ll obviously know more about who watched what after the event, but it seems reasonable to predict that only the most hardcore political junkies will watch the 5PM <a href="http://www.politico.com/story/2015/07/fox-republican-debate-lowers-threshold-120748.html">consolation</a> debate, while the prime timed debate will be a slightly (but probably only slightly) broader audience. In other words, while debates have been shown to have some impact on citizen knowledge, these debates are structured in a way that doesn’t really take advantage of that. Not really surprising, but worth thinking about. <br />
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<br />
<i>Not what to think, but what to think about </i><br />
<i><br /></i>
Research also suggests that debates can influence the factors that voters use to evaluate candidates, also known as priming. In his study of watching vs. listening to debates, Druckman notes that respondents who watched the Kennedy-Nixon debate used different criteria to evaluate the candidates than did those who heard the debate on the radio. In a meta-study of presidential debates, William Benoit, Glenn Hansen, and Rebecca Verser find that debates have “<a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/0363775032000179133#.VbuTOEXDGMY">agenda-setting</a>” effects, shaping the issues that citizens find most important, and thus use to inform their voting decisions. <br />
<br />
With such a crowded Republican field, this kind of effect seems like it could be pretty important. In other words, what we are looking at is how voters and party elites will structure the choice of whom to back. (See this <a href="http://www.mischiefsoffaction.com/2015/07/asking-right-kind-of-questions.html">piece</a> by Hans Noel from earlier this week). I don’t really know right now how the relevant actors are structuring their choices. Perhaps they’re deciding between two of the dominant mainstream contenders (Rubio, Walker, Bush)? Maybe deciding which of establishment candidate to support as a second choice to current frontrunner (but unlikely nominee) Donald Trump? Or perhaps the field and the polls look like they do because no clear way to structure the choice has emerged. If that’s the case, then the debates might affect the criteria that primary voters use to decide whom to support.<br />
<br />
Primary debates are not obviously linked with the <i><a href="http://www.amazon.com/The-Party-Decides-Presidential-Nominations/dp/0226112373">Party</a> <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/hans-noel/ideological-purists-vs-pr_b_7905102.html">Decides</a></i> <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/hans-noel/ideological-purists-vs-pr_b_7905102.html"></a><a href="http://www.mischiefsoffaction.com/2015/07/this-is-how-party-decides.html">perspective</a>. But to the extent that elite decisions about nominations hinge on “who can best unite the party and win the general election” (TPD, 235), debates may indirectly shape what elites decide to do. Given what we know about the potential for debates to shape evaluation criteria, they might have an especially useful structuring role in the 2016 contest. As I’ve noted before, we seem to be at the end of the Reagan era (so-called for the sake of convenience), where the coalition formed around that time is losing its structure and dominance. In this context, the notable feature of the 2016 Republican field isn’t so much the number of warring party factions as the lack of clear factional fault lines at all. As I wrote a few months ago, the different candidates <a href="http://www.mischiefsoffaction.com/2015/05/by-julia-azari-last-week-wasnta-great.html?q=iraq">represent</a> different approaches to and mixes of Republican orthodoxy, as it applies to economic, social, and foreign policy. One possibility is that debates will bring a set of clear issues to the fore, prompting primary voters to select based on personal characteristics or taxes, or immigration, or foreign policy, or whatever. This, in turn, would seem to provide party elites with clues about how to make endorsement and donation decisions. My best guess is that this is a more likely effect than learning, for the reasons I specify above. <br />
<br />
<i>Political theater </i><br />
<br />
The obvious takeaway is that while studies show that debates have some impact, these effects are conditional and the likely influence on the big picture is indirect. The debates are media events as much as political events. The first 2016 debates are sponsored by cable networks whose main goals are ratings, not civic education. Presidential debates occur at the intersection of two distinct sets of institutions, “new media” and political parties, which have their own objectives and operational logics. As a result, they have multiple goals that can work at cross-purposes, undermining what citizens or party elites hope to get out of the debates. <br />
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The beginning of debate season also reminds us of the gap between the form and the real function of various political events. Formal candidate <a href="http://www.mischiefsoffaction.com/2015/04/whats-in-announcement.html?q=political+time">announcements,</a> political conventions, and some - maybe all - primaries, all have much less actual significance than their formal roles imply. These events seem to exist to entertain the most engaged citizens, while many other citizens remain outside the process altogether. Meanwhile, the really important work of politics is done informally and out of sight. While <a href="http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/ten-miles-square/2015/03/the_clinton_emails_politics_go054587.php">transparency</a> has its limits, opportunities for meaningful participation and deliberation are still critical elements of democracy. In this sense, the debates work against the very values they're supposed to uphold. Julia Azari http://www.blogger.com/profile/06982342794900306791noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8925493305476056067.post-30627657720039216152015-07-31T13:15:00.000-04:002015-07-31T13:43:26.595-04:00SexyCongress Tells Us A Lot... About People Who Rate People's Attractiveness On-Line<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhMIkyzNMCeafNGYgM_RYvsT9iJeVdD2AJvF-RlV-ojmQebuDlLkPpJVtwtXPU68fUCDkHo6P1puJXJjE9mcHDibQXMTAFmnX6IPvFfQ_oAEkxIbJpdyoP4jvo6FlbEqFl7gM2V2ohsXdwL/s1600/o-PAUL-RYAN-WORKOUT-facebook.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhMIkyzNMCeafNGYgM_RYvsT9iJeVdD2AJvF-RlV-ojmQebuDlLkPpJVtwtXPU68fUCDkHo6P1puJXJjE9mcHDibQXMTAFmnX6IPvFfQ_oAEkxIbJpdyoP4jvo6FlbEqFl7gM2V2ohsXdwL/s400/o-PAUL-RYAN-WORKOUT-facebook.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Allegedly the 74th hottest member of Congress</td></tr>
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<span style="font-size: x-small;">by Seth Masket</span><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><br /></span>
Some enterprising programmers have created a way for people to rank the relative hotness of members of Congress at a website called <a href="http://www.sexycongress.net/" target="_blank">SexyCongress</a>. As of today, they've accrued nearly half a million votes, so we've got a pretty robust ranking. What have we learned? Sadly, little we didn't already know. Not about Congress, of course, but about the people who go on-line to rank people sexually.<br />
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I've gathered the ranking data to see what it tells us. I've taken the rankings and subtracted them from 535 to create a "hotness" scale, with higher numbers belonging to members perceived as more attractive. As <a href="http://www.dailydot.com/politics/sexy-congress-dot-com-sexycongress/" target="_blank">others</a> have noted, the hottest members of Congress are all female. But that doesn't mean all the women in Congress are considered hot. The histogram below probably tells you everything you need to know about the people who have used this site:<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiYrlQVm0LxwKeJPkgIpvavVwqH6HkqocXkN_QXGT8u64yUjX78WQzN3MFVN0QAAAQf8nsw4ItaVC9Bf5tknUHVqB5dUo6X1PbQr-LA2rIGjxf-xfUBZFrDCd6m9GdEd8-yTsRSAQCL7-k7/s1600/sexy+congress+hist.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="290" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiYrlQVm0LxwKeJPkgIpvavVwqH6HkqocXkN_QXGT8u64yUjX78WQzN3MFVN0QAAAQf8nsw4ItaVC9Bf5tknUHVqB5dUo6X1PbQr-LA2rIGjxf-xfUBZFrDCd6m9GdEd8-yTsRSAQCL7-k7/s400/sexy+congress+hist.png" width="400" /></a></div>
As the graph shows, men fill out all levels of the hotness scale; their distribution is flat. For female members of Congress, it's a completely bimodal distribution, with women either perceived as very attractive or very unattractive.<br />
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And as you could probably guess, age makes up a large component of perceived attractiveness. Below, I've created two scatterplots of hotness plotted against age, one for men and one for women. For both genders, perceived hotness drops dramatically with age. Men drop seven hotness points for each additional year, while women drop eleven. Of course, that's not really a linear relationship for women; according to the raters, you're hot until you're not.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhFikUsaZQv6tt3rVOiGbWVqvqN1KmS9hvPq7JtMsJkKm-FCWT9N_99Mp7uwWMY4PvXKXC8mHXnK0VXEcg2Rf1IXQzelvusPpSxfZT45Os3-niSS9eHsvALcHeVbHUzXpqAMlJIQgtkuuRc/s1600/sexy+congress+scatter.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="290" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhFikUsaZQv6tt3rVOiGbWVqvqN1KmS9hvPq7JtMsJkKm-FCWT9N_99Mp7uwWMY4PvXKXC8mHXnK0VXEcg2Rf1IXQzelvusPpSxfZT45Os3-niSS9eHsvALcHeVbHUzXpqAMlJIQgtkuuRc/s400/sexy+congress+scatter.png" width="400" /></a></div>
Readers might find some solace in the knowledge that ideology appears to be unrelated to perceived hotness. Tenure doesn't seem to matter, either -- serving longer in DC doesn't seem to make people any more or less attractive, controlling for age. Raters seem to find Republican women somewhat hotter than Democratic women, but that appears to be largely a function of female Republican members of Congress being several years younger, on average, than female Democratic members.<br />
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Here endeth today's lesson.Seth Maskethttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17178036016555722068noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8925493305476056067.post-17801315044636990172015-07-30T14:48:00.003-04:002015-08-02T22:36:35.537-04:00Running For Office Requires Running An Office<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjIXzVBWbBIRlDYzG9jLvdxxVLxHx-zlfL87BM1zd6Zfl3gTY7CHwDxzQ3hBpYYdwkWlecyRSQAa74sk6C05XMGDlV8XxjdhIYOcAt9OWqZDpYqq6GZEyoX7ax4X3lbd5JF1TGZd9-gFFc/s1600/Dwight-Schrute-7.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjIXzVBWbBIRlDYzG9jLvdxxVLxHx-zlfL87BM1zd6Zfl3gTY7CHwDxzQ3hBpYYdwkWlecyRSQAa74sk6C05XMGDlV8XxjdhIYOcAt9OWqZDpYqq6GZEyoX7ax4X3lbd5JF1TGZd9-gFFc/s400/Dwight-Schrute-7.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
<span style="font-size: x-small;">By John W. Patty</span><br />
<br />
Rand Paul's campaign has faltered. So did Mitt Romney's. Both faltered to some degree because of personnel/staffing problems (see <a href="http://www.politico.com/story/2015/07/rand-paul-2016-downward-spiral-gop-campaign-120716.html?ml=tb">here for Paul</a>, <a href="http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/heres-why-mitt-romney-has-make-his-mind-now-n296796">here for Romney</a>, and <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/how-jeb-bushs-campaign-ran-off-course-before-it-even-began/2015/06/10/386331e6-0eb6-11e5-adec-e82f8395c032_story.html">here for an article in June describing similar issues in Jeb Bush's campaign</a>). On the other side of the coin, and the aisle, I blogged a few months ago about why Hillary might <a href="http://www.mischiefsoffaction.com/2015/02/hillary-2016-willary-or-wont-she-she.html">have held up her official entry into the 2016 race in order to jam up potential Democratic contenders from assembling talented staffs</a>.<br />
<br />
In addition to classic "interests" (such as discussed <a href="http://www.mischiefsoffaction.com/2015/07/the-fractured-left-bernie-sanders.html">here by Julia Azari</a> and <a href="http://www.mischiefsoffaction.com/2015/07/ideology-is-coalition.html">here by Hans Noel</a>) and donors (as pointed out <a href="http://www.mischiefsoffaction.com/2015/04/who-is-robert-mercer-how-mega-donors.html">here by Richard Skinner</a> and <a href="http://www.mischiefsoffaction.com/2015/04/the-money-is-party.html">here by Greg Koger</a>), any electorally viable party is also composed of professional campaign staff. From pollsters to lawyers to campaign finance specialists to good, old-fashioned "implementers," these men and women often (but not always) make their living from working on campaigns. <br />
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Furthermore, they are hired by candidates (or, more accurately, usually by members of candidates' staffs). As a general rule, they are not hired randomly. Staff are hired to help the campaign achieve its goal, which is often to win---or at least achieve a good showing in the polls. Because campaign staff are not drafted involuntarily, this means that potential staffers should choose which campaign they work on in any given election cycle with an eye to the <i>next</i> cycle (or beyond). <br />
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To see how this process ends up creating connections between (and within) campaigns, check out <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2015/05/17/us/elections/2016-presidential-campaigns-staff-connections-clinton-bush-cruz-paul-rubio-walker.html">this great interactive feature by the NY Times</a>. The impact of these connections on campaigns' strategies is examined in this <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ajps.12143/abstract">recent <i>American Journal of Political Science</i> (<i>AJPS</i>) article</a> by <a href="http://www.dartmouth.edu/~nyhan/">Brendan Nyhan</a> and <a href="https://pages.wustl.edu/montgomery">Jacob Montgomery</a>. My point here is that campaign staffing matters for electoral viability in a way that arguably supersedes its impact on campaign decisions. <a href="http://www.politico.com/story/2015/07/rand-paul-2016-downward-spiral-gop-campaign-120716.html?ml=tb">Rand Paul's experiences</a>---in particular, the candidate being (seen as) difficult to "manage"---are not unusual. <br />
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I think that this mundane aspect of campaigning---the nuts and bolts of logistics and coordination---plays an important and under-appreciated role in representation and electoral accountability. This is because running a campaign is akin to running a political office. Regardless of whether the candidate is seeking a legislative, executive, or judicial office, representing his or her constituents' interests once in that office requires carrying out the same kind of activities that running a nimble and responsive electoral campaign does. <br />
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Accordingly, campaign staff arguably serve as a kind of canary in the coal mine for the electorate: if a candidate is broadly seen as one that who would not further the careers of a campaign staffer, then that candidate is unlikely to run the kind of office that is required to reliable serve his or her constituents' interests. <br />
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This recognition also provides a different take on the fact that, for all intents and purposes, professional campaign staffers are partisan. That is, it is rare to find a campaign professional who works for candidates in both parties. In this sense, campaign professionals differ from "industry group" donors, which tend to cross party lines with some frequency (<i>e.g.</i>, <a href="http://www.bostonreview.net/bonica-small-donors-polarization">see here</a> but, on donors more broadly, also <a href="https://www.opensecrets.org/news/2008/03/few-presidential-donors-cross/">see here</a>). By being at least apparently partisan[1] and motivated to work on successful campaigns, these staffers collectively possess both the knowledge and incentives to effectively (though perhaps not efficiently) "sort" candidates with respect to their abilities to carry a coherent message (whatever that message may be). Perhaps the best recent example of this is provided by the Koch Brothers' refusal to provide logistical support to Donald Trump, <a href="http://www.mischiefsoffaction.com/2015/07/this-is-how-party-decides.html">as Hans Noel describes here</a>.<br />
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More generally, the ability to hire, retain, and coordinate effective campaign staffs is one facet of what political scientists refer to as "valence," which refers to non-policy characteristics of a candidate that the electorate has generally shared preferences about. <br />
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In terms of how these features should affect campaigns, including how they will affect ideological polarization and the competitiveness of elections, Jennifer Carter and I construct a theory in <a href="https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4231163/ValenceAndCampaigns-Final.pdf">our forthcoming article in the </a><i><a href="https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/4231163/ValenceAndCampaigns-Final.pdf">AJPS</a> </i>examining the effect of this kind of valence, which we refer to as <i>campaign valence</i>, in line with <a href="http://psfaculty.ucdavis.edu/wstone/files/candidate_positions_and_character.pdf">this great <i>AJPS </i>article by Walter Stone and Elizabeth Sima</a>. Our theory indicates several effects of the quality of a candidate's campaign staff.[2] For example, the theory indicates that if a challenger has a high quality staff, this will sometimes prompt non-centrist incumbents (<i>e.g.</i>, those who have fallen "out of step" with their constituents' preferences) to run a more aggressive campaign and attempt to get ``into step,'' thereby indirectly increasing electoral accountability. On the other hand, if the incumbent has a very high quality staff, this can preempt challengers from entering the race, thereby potentially reducing electoral accountability.<br />
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What to take from this is that both theory and empirics indicate that campaign staffs are important, and important beyond merely predicting the horse-race between otherwise identical candidates---even if campaign staffs do not directly affect the strategy choices of the campaigns they work for (which they assuredly do), the ability to acquire and retain a high quality staff has both direct and indirect effects on democratic representation and electoral accountability. Indeed, the soft power exerted by those who are able to harness and deliver good front offices---effective chiefs of staff, energetic campaign finance operators, well-connected media consultants, savvy pollsters, <i>etc</i>. may rival or exceed that of simple monetary donations. <br />
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[1] Delving too far into the origins of this sorting falls beyond the scope of this post, but I say "apparently partisan" because for my purposes here it does not really matter whether the sorting is based on the staffers' true policy preferences or simply enforced in equilibrium by social norms and hiring/recruiting practices. <br />
[2] In our model, the quality of a candidate's staff is represented in his or her likelihood of being able to respond to the opponent's announcement of a platform.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8925493305476056067.post-6698762536246815132015-07-30T12:38:00.000-04:002015-08-02T22:37:54.821-04:00Asking the Right Kind of Questions<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: x-small;">By Hans Noel</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">Everyone knows the polls are wrong. We just don’t all agree on why.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">I don't know anyone who thinks Donald Trump is going to be the Republican nominee for president, any more than <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_fictional_United_States_presidential_candidates" target="_blank">Kang or Kodos </a>were going to be. National parties don’t nominate cartoon characters for president. So what are we to make of his <a href="https://www.google.com/search?client=safari&rls=en&q=donald+trump+polls&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8" target="_blank">leading in early polls</a>?</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">Neuroscientist Sam Wang, <a href="http://www.newrepublic.com/article/122333/donald-trump-not-frontrunner-smarter-polls-would-prove-it" target="_blank">writing last week at TNR</a>, has part of the answer: 20 percent isn’t really winning. At some point, some candidates will drop out, and their support will swing to another candidate. So why not anticipate that swing?</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">Wang suggests that pollsters ask respondents to rank <i>all</i> of the presidential candidates, and then we use <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Instant-runoff_voting" target="_blank">Instant Runoff Voting</a> to figure out who the winner is.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">I generally like the idea. What is missing in most polls is a measure of this lurking support. We argued in <a href="https://www.facebook.com/pages/The-Party-Decides/150937968298602" target="_blank">The Party Decides</a> that the ideal candidate was not necessarily anyone’s first choice, but someone acceptable to all factions in the party. So we need to know who else voters like.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">But there are three big problems in Wang’s suggestion. </span></div>
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<ol>
<li><span style="font-family: inherit;">I think it’s impractical to ask survey respondents to rank 17 candidates, or even many of them. It’s a cognitively difficult task, and respondents, especially on the phone, will be neither willing nor able to do it. </span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: inherit;">More importantly, IRV isn’t how we select delegates for the conventions. <a href="http://www.thegreenpapers.com/" target="_blank">Every state is different, and the rules are complicated</a>, but they tend to use variants on winner-take-all or proportional representation. So winning 20% might actually be winning in some states. What is going to happen is that some candidates will drop out, but not necessarily the ones at the bottom, and not necessarily in an IRV-appropriate sequence. I predict Trump drops out if his numbers fade in the fall, but narcissists don’t tend to recognize when they are being rejected, so maybe not. He might linger a long time. So might others. The process of winnowing is complicated, and it involves highly attentive and involved party leaders. Trump has already noticed that the <a href="http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2015/07/23/trump-threatens-third-party-bid/" target="_blank">Republican establishment doesn’t like him</a>. The other candidates, too, need to demonstrate their appeal to party leaders and to the rank-and-file. As that happens, some will quit the race, and others will surge to importance. Conducting an IRV vote now won’t foretell how that plays out. </span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: inherit;">Relatedly, the real issue with polls at this point is just that voters don’t know the candidates yet. Even many highly attentive activists don’t. That’s the real reason Trump’s numbers are unreliable. He has a lot of name recognition, while other candidates don’t yet. The debates may change that. </span></li>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">But these are quibbles. Wang is a neuroscientist not a political scientist, so it’s not fair to criticize him for not knowing about the nomination process. It’s a good idea. And a number of pollsters have already been doing it. <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/republican-activists-primary-poll_55afd500e4b0a9b9485352ad?mirrizfr" target="_blank">Mark Blumenthal and the Huffington Post surveyed political activists</a> of <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/democratic-activists-2016_55b79a65e4b0074ba5a62a48?sf758kt9" target="_blank">both parties</a>, and they asked their second choice, as well as who is simply acceptable to them. Analyzing that data gets at the same dynamic that Wang is rightly saying we should look at. </span><br />
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For example, one could look for nations within the Huffington Post data, <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/hans-noel/ideological-purists-vs-pr_b_7905102.html" target="_blank">as I do in this post here</a>.</div>
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Hans Noelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06927734921623741805noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8925493305476056067.post-75579676767432100722015-07-29T14:12:00.001-04:002015-07-30T01:36:38.774-04:00Putting The "Idea" In "Ideology": What Would A GOP President Do In 2017?<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgT5lKPcOrkFvfA_AP2vhtMO5XRMUBLG1bycfh5jLfAVTR406t8iJEgJ7nt1OVx3KGy4ueMQXqkz7wNRixsMRO4An2KaTM6g6lhxEfDGYzWQPHi9QMd1W3B1Nc7yiJcDsQuaxExQhujMgA/s1600/Ronald_Reagan_televised_address_from_the_Oval_Office%252C_outlining_plan_for_Tax_Reduction_Legislation_July_1981.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" border="0" height="264" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgT5lKPcOrkFvfA_AP2vhtMO5XRMUBLG1bycfh5jLfAVTR406t8iJEgJ7nt1OVx3KGy4ueMQXqkz7wNRixsMRO4An2KaTM6g6lhxEfDGYzWQPHi9QMd1W3B1Nc7yiJcDsQuaxExQhujMgA/s400/Ronald_Reagan_televised_address_from_the_Oval_Office%252C_outlining_plan_for_Tax_Reduction_Legislation_July_1981.jpg" title="President Reagan, Describing His Proposed Tax Cuts in July 1981. Credit: White House Photo Office" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">President Reagan, Describing His Proposed Tax Cuts in July 1981.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<span style="font-size: xx-small;">By John W. Patty</span><br />
<br />
Over the past week or so, the Mischiefs have offered a set of complementary viewpoints on the multifaceted nature of coalitions/parties in US politics (<i>e.g., </i><a href="http://www.mischiefsoffaction.com/2015/07/the-fractured-left-bernie-sanders.html">Azari on the Democrats</a>, <a href="http://www.mischiefsoffaction.com/2015/07/judge-party-by-whom-it-nominates-not-by.html">Masket on what Trump doesn't mean</a>, <a href="http://www.mischiefsoffaction.com/2015/07/ideology-is-coalition.html">Noel on how ideology is forged through elections</a>, and <a href="http://www.mischiefsoffaction.com/2015/07/many-men-many-supporters-united-in-anger.html">me on why the GOP has so many candidates</a>). Thinking about these posts led me to wonder what a newly elected GOP president would choose to pursue or promote in 2017. I am interested in what one might call the new president's "honeymoon policies," the policies that he or she actively promotes right after his or her inauguration.[1] Given the apparent potency of the president right after his or her first election, the policy or policies that he or she promotes during this time is unusually important for predicting the direction of public policy.<br />
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Beyond President Obama's efforts to enact the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Patient_Protection_and_Affordable_Care_Act">Affordable Care Act</a>, other recent examples include George W. Bush's <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_Growth_and_Tax_Relief_Reconciliation_Act_of_2001">2001 tax cuts</a>, the education reforms referred to as "<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/No_Child_Left_Behind_Act">No Child Left Behind</a>," and his <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/White_House_Office_of_Faith-Based_and_Neighborhood_Partnerships">faith-based initiative</a>, as well as Bill Clinton's efforts to enact the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Family_and_Medical_Leave_Act_of_1993">Family and Medical Leave Act</a> and his <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clinton_health_care_plan_of_1993">failed attempts at health care reform</a>. In thinking about the coalition coalescence that occurs during presidential elections, the 2016 campaign and its ensuing administration seems to provide an excellent opportunity to think about how politics shapes policy at the federal level in the United States. I will limit myself to four (domestic) policy areas that seem primed for a "big" proposal from a new president: income inequality, health care, immigration, and infrastructure.<br />
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<b>Income inequality. </b>A refrain common to both parties is a worry about how "average" Americans are doing in today's economy. Of course, this refrain is not new (<i>e.g.</i>, <a href="http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2008/01/17/the-actor-and-the-detail-man">Reagan's famous question </a>about whether Americans were better off in 1980 than they were in 1976), but the focus on income inequality in America is arguably unusually broad-based and sustained. The parties' leading candidates predictably diverge in how they think this issue should be addressed---the <a href="http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/hillary-clinton-isnt-democratic-rivals-minimum-wage/story?id=32669536">Democrats exhibit varying degrees of support for raising the minimum wage</a> and, as fellow Mischief <a href="http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/fixgov/posts/2015/04/14-republican-candidates-tax-cuts-who-cares-skinner">Richard Skinner notes elsewhere</a>, the Republicans are typically unified in support for tax cuts, but differ in <i>how</i> to cut them. <br />
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In thinking about how a Republican president would seek to tamp down income inequality and/or raise the standard of living of the "average" American, it is hard not to be a bit cynical. Raising the federal minimum wage is probably off the table, particularly after <a href="http://www.dol.gov/whd/flsa/nprm-eo13658/factsheet.htm">President Obama acted unilaterally and quite publicly in this direction in 2014</a>. Cutting taxes would, in my mind, undoubtedly be a big talking point for the new administration, but I don't see how a major tax cut would be financed in a politically and arithmetically feasible fashion. So, while I could see a Democratic president pursuing (probably unsuccessfully) a major income/tax initiative through Congress---and this is a policy area that essentially requires that the president pursue policy change through statutory means---I just don't see a scenario in which a GOP president in 2017 decides that this is the first fight to fight.<br />
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<b>Immigration.</b> Both parties have a vested electoral interest in immigration policy. In line with the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cross-cutting_cleavage">"cross-cutting" nature</a> of this issue, each party is experiencing internal conflict regarding the proper approach. For example, while <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/05/05/hillary-clinton-immigration-reform_n_7217768.html">Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton is rushing to the (liberalizing) front of it</a>. Bernie Sanders, an economic populist, <a href="http://www.politico.com/story/2015/06/bernie-sanders-and-immigration-its-complicated-119190.html">is more reserved on this issue</a>. <br />
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Across the aisle, of course, <a href="http://time.com/3867523/immigration-republican-presidential/">immigration is arguably the most vexing major issue for the various GOP candidates</a>. On the one hand, in terms of the likely place of immigration in a GOP president's list of priorities, this dissension generally leads one to predict that immigration will be shelved because the discord among the GOP's presidential candidates mirrors that within Congress. But, on the other hand, this issue has the virtue of being readymade for unilateral presidential action, as <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/president-obamas-unilateral-action-on-immigration-has-no-precedent/2014/12/03/3fd78650-79a3-11e4-9a27-6fdbc612bff8_story.html">President Obama has demonstrated</a>. And, indeed, it is possible---particularly in light of <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trumps-epic-statement-on-mexico-2015-7">the pretender Donald Trump's comments</a>---that a GOP president would be (perhaps quietly) thanked by his or her co-partisans in Congress if he or she were to unilaterally pursue a measured liberalization of immigration policy. <br />
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That said, as with health care, a GOP president that made a unilateral push to liberalize immigration policy would be following in Obama's footsteps, and pushing for the policy in Congress might very well mire the new president's administration, given the variety of interests (employers, unions, state governments, local governments, <i>etc</i>) that would emerge from the woodwork during the actual drafting of any statutory changes. Thus, I come to my "pick" for which policy area is most likely to be picked by a new GOP president for a major initiative...<br />
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<b>Health Care Reform.</b> Despite <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/06/25/gop-obamacare-reaction_n_7662928.html">publicly railing against the Affordable Care Act</a>, none of the GOP candidates have proposed a replacement for it. Simply repealing it is not tenable to a majority of members of both chambers of Congress, so a GOP president would need to come up with something else, probably tweaks of the existing law. Because this would probably require assuring people that they wouldn't lose their coverage, it is really murky (to me, at least) how a newly-elected GOP president would proceed here. It seems far more likely that the president would call for a repeal of the statute to reach his or her desk, but even if such a repeal did reach his or her desk, it seems highly unlikely that the details of the replacement policy would have been dictated (at least publicly) by the president. After all, while Obama succeeded where Clinton failed, Clinton still failed and Obama's presidency has been swallowed up by it. Furthermore, to a new president seeking a legacy, being the president that "replaced Obamacare" probably rings a little hollow compared to something like <a href="http://history.nasa.gov/moondec.html">deciding to put a man on the moon</a> or the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interstate_Highway_System">Dwight D. Eisenhower Interstate Highway System</a>. (More on that below...)<br />
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<b>Infrastructure.</b> The simple reality is that America's infrastructure is in pretty bad shape. Another (and perhaps politically more relevant) simple reality is that nothing makes Members of Congress as happy as spending on capital projects in their districts. While there are <a href="http://www.dailykos.com/story/2015/05/15/1383149/-Why-do-Republicans-really-oppose-infrastructure-spending#">various possible reasons that Republicans are often opposed to infrastructure spending</a>, these arguments are less compelling to political executives like presidents or governors (<i>e.g.</i>, Jeb Bush, Bobby Jindal, Mike Huckabee, Scott Walker), who spend their time dealing with day-to-day implementation and maintenance issues. Put bluntly, collapsed bridges, train derailments, flight delays, floods---these issues redound upon both the workload and legacy of executives far more than they do on those of legislators. <br />
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Another variable in this equation is the federal government's <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Highway_Trust_Fund">Highway Trust Fund</a> (HTF). Many (but obviously not all) infrastructure projects can be legitimately financed through this fund, and the fund is (supposed to be) financed through the federal gas tax, making it "off-budget," so that increases in spending from the fund will not increase the deficit. Furthermore, while increasing spending from this fund in a budget neutral way would require raising the gas tax, <a href="http://thehill.com/policy/transportation/230725-lobbying-heavyweights-back-gas-tax-hike">both the AAA and the US Chamber of Commerce strongly support doing exactly this</a>. Raising taxes is of course anathema to the modern GOP (and, admittedly, <a href="http://www.thehill.com/policy/transportation/230375-state-polls-show-lack-of-support-for-gas-tax-hike">not popular</a>), but the HTF presents Members of Congress with a catch-22: unless they want to increase the deficit (or find other programs to cut), the only way to use the HTF is to increase the gas tax, because <a href="http://www.transportation.gov/highway-trust-fund-ticker">the HTF is broke</a>.<br />
<h3>
What Will Make the Difference?</h3>
Arguably, the biggest determinant of what area(s) any new president decides to focus on is the president's own policy goals and, hopefully, these are at least somewhat mirrored in his or her campaign pledges. Whether campaign pledges have an independent influence on subsequent policymaking is still debated, what seems clear is that a president's ability to influence policy in his or her honeymoon period depends on the configuration of Congress (<i>e.g., </i><a href="http://prq.sagepub.com/content/60/2/250.short">Beckmann and Godfrey (2007)</a>, <a href="http://www.cambridge.org/us/academic/subjects/politics-international-relations/american-government-politics-and-policy/pushing-agenda-presidential-leadership-us-lawmaking-19532004?format=AR">Beckmann (2010)</a>). [2]<br />
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However, at least as I see them, the downsides for a GOP president to pursuing income inequality and health care are, barring some external change in the federal government's budget picture, independent of the configuration of Congress. Of course, this is not the case with immigration, where the support for reform has been real, active, and bipartisan for decades. Thus, while the electoral realities of the issue suggest that getting solid GOP majority support for any given set of reforms will be very difficult---particularly given the rhetoric in the GOP nominating race right now---if the right candidate wins (say Bush or Rubio wins the GOP nomination) and congressional races in both chambers break the right way, then immigration reform could very easily be seen as a big win. But, again, note that I see this scenario as really boiling back down to the first determinant: the new president's own policy goals. [3]<br />
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While presidents are constrained by Congress and the political landscape they inherit, a fundamental reality is that presidential attention to an issue affects the media's attention to an issue, and some combination of this affects (though doesn't completely determine, of course) how Congress treats the issue. The fact that a president's personal priorities can (and almost surely must) play a role in what issues and policies he or she decides to focus upon is why, at the end, though parties and ideology each loom large in American politics, sometimes, in a few instances, it really might just come down to which of the bums you throw <i>into</i> the Oval Office.<br />
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[1] While I would bet that both chambers of Congress would continue to be clearly controlled by the GOP in such a scenario, I will sketch occasionally the differences between pursuing policy goals through statutory means (requiring Congressional assent) versus through unilateral action (using executive orders or other administrative tools). <br />
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[2] This is consistent with the administration-by-administration, issue-by-issue variation in whether presidents choose to pursue policy through legislative or unilateral means (<a href="http://press.princeton.edu/titles/7658.html">Howell (2004)</a>).<br />
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[3] Of course, it's very possible that any new president will pursue something that few, if any of, can foresee: just consider Clinton's decision to promote <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Don%27t_ask,_don%27t_tell">"Don't Ask, Don't Tell"</a> or George W. Bush's <a href="http://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/news/releases/2001/08/20010809-2.html">direct and high profile involvement in stem cell research</a>. But, while high profile, these priorities focused on issues that, while important, were not at the time in the mainstream. Both Clinton and Bush pursued other policy decisions at the same time that were more closely tied to the more mainstream issues discussed during the campaign. <br />
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8925493305476056067.post-11426986580367363452015-07-29T12:20:00.001-04:002015-07-29T12:21:47.360-04:00This is How The Party Decides<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg4kJ3Pj47ok276Y50MG2HN1rxLeu3Zem1S-xkn3BxRJUH3MKYlmnbHIlXCHLEhFwEjIeb58SpffqDUN4Pr36ifi8tCMq3_-N-OyVtOuPDj-s5FmNsxn5ad9IVvaon_ZyGnqfvQrvCvYeI/s1600/Lollipop-Rainbox-Swirl.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="580" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg4kJ3Pj47ok276Y50MG2HN1rxLeu3Zem1S-xkn3BxRJUH3MKYlmnbHIlXCHLEhFwEjIeb58SpffqDUN4Pr36ifi8tCMq3_-N-OyVtOuPDj-s5FmNsxn5ad9IVvaon_ZyGnqfvQrvCvYeI/s640/Lollipop-Rainbox-Swirl.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Donald J. Trump. <br /><span style="font-size: xx-small;">(Image by Evan-Amos (Own work) [CC0], via Wikimedia Commons)</span></td></tr>
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<span style="font-size: xx-small;">By Hans Noel</span><br />
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<a href="http://www.politico.com/story/2015/07/kochs-freeze-out-trump-120752.html" target="_blank">According to Politico</a>, Donald Trump has lost the Koch Brothers primary. The Kochs have declined to let Trump buy into their campaign dataset and have kept him off the agenda of campaign gatherings they host.<br />
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They don't like him, and it matters.<br />
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And it can't just be that they have money. Even if Trump is <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2015/06/16/6-reasons-you-cant-believe-anything-donald-trump-says-about-his-9-billion-net-worth/" target="_blank">not worth as much as he claims</a>, he's not lacking for money. What he's lacking are the political resources. The gatekeepers of those resources are people for whom politics is not a whim. The Kochs built their influential network with money, but also with time and energy. Trump turned his initial stake into a real estate empire. The Kochs have invested their money in politics.<br />
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Trump has responded by petulantly complaining about how the party leaders would take his money, but now they want nothing to do with him. Well, yeah. Money is important in politics, but it's not the only thing. Some donors are also players. Others are just suckers.<br />
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This is essentially what we say in <a href="https://www.facebook.com/pages/The-Party-Decides/150937968298602" target="_blank">The Party Decides</a>. Some party leaders, including informal leaders who do not hold any particular office, have resources that candidates need. We discussed cases of candidates coming to campaign in a state and finding that all the important campaign staff were working for their rivals. <a href="http://faculty.georgetown.edu/hcn4/Downloads/KMN_APR2010.pdf" target="_blank">Seth and Greg and I</a> also have treated <a href="http://faculty.georgetown.edu/hcn4/Downloads/KMN_BJPS2009.pdf" target="_blank">campaign mailing lists</a> as party resources.<br />
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Does this mean that the Kochs are the party? Well, yes. Not all of it, but they are important in the party. I think it's likely that the trajectory of campaign finance regulations have <a href="http://www.mischiefsoffaction.com/2015/04/the-money-is-party.html" target="_blank">empowered the money players in the party</a>. But that's nothing new. The balance of power in the party shifts. I don't think the Kochs are kingmakers, but they are more than just money guys.<br />
<br />Hans Noelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06927734921623741805noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8925493305476056067.post-54538807747406936252015-07-27T12:21:00.001-04:002015-07-27T12:21:35.911-04:00Why It's Too Early To Assess Obama's Legacy<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<span style="font-size: x-small;">by Craig Goodman</span></div>
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President Obama signed the Affordable Care Act into law, one of the most far-reaching pieces of legislation in 50 years, as well as passing a stimulus bill, Dodd-Frank, the killing of Osama bin Laden, and presiding over steady economic growth. Nevertheless, it may be too early to anoint President Obama as one of the most consequential presidents in American history, <a href="http://www.vox.com/2015/6/26/8849925/obama-obamacare-history-presidents">as Dylan Matthews recently did</a>. <br />
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Earlier this year, Brandon Rottinghaus and Justin Vaughn conducted a <a href="http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/fixgov/posts/2015/02/13-obama-measuring-presidential-greatness-vaughn-rottinghaus?utm_campaign=Brookings+Brief&utm_source=hs_email&utm_medium=email&utm_content=16059786&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-_GTPz7rIWCtGkb9eMsH88LLfHY_CCmySzvgx8OfxMZYCpcK1n9hDAYiQOegw5j0fJbCHZpruCSPGT_gBIjdgWnjurESA&_hsmi=16059786">survey</a> of scholars in 2014 with expertise in the presidency. They found President Obama ranked in the middle of the pack. Scholars were critical of President Obama’s military, diplomatic, and legislative skills, and felt the initial expectations of greatness for his presidency did not materialize. After a consequential first two years, President Obama promised to trim his sails after the 2010 midterms and since that point governing has been marked by periodic fiscal cliffs, scandals, and the specter of government shutdowns. <a href="http://www.mischiefsoffaction.com/2015/06/where-do-we-go-from-here-party-politics.html">Julia Azari</a> and <a href="http://www.mischiefsoffaction.com/2015/06/obamas-week-to-remember-in-perspective.html">Jesse Rhodes</a> recently considered how the past few months will affect President Obama’s overall legacy. Here, I extend this line of thinking by looking at some additional factors that may also affect the president’s legacy. <br />
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While Matthews did not draw a direct link to Stephen Skowronek's work on the presidency, Azari did. She concluded that whether it involved the Affordable Care Act or the Supreme Court's decision in <i>Obergefell v. Hodges</i>, the outcomes simply reinforced the parties' ideas and core constituencies. <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Presidential-Leadership-Political-Time-Reappraisal/dp/0700617620/ref=sr_1_3?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1437073863&sr=1-3&keywords=stephen+skowronek">Skowronek's</a> work on political time suggests President Obama is not likely to be viewed as a reconstructive president and part of that stems from the influence of progressivism. At heart, President Obama has always seemed to be more of pragmatist, and this outlook has complicated his relationships with fellow Democrats. For example, President Obama used a great deal of political capital during his first term to pursue the stimulus, the Affordable Care Act (ACA), Dodd-Frank, and climate change legislation. Quite often, the president worked with his Democratic allies, who have been essential to his successes, and other times he desperately sought Republican support that would provide a bipartisan sheen to his accomplishments, but he never built any durable alliances with Republicans. Those victories came at a cost in terms of public opinion and Democratic control of the <a href="http://apr.sagepub.com/content/40/5/844.abstract?etoc">House</a>. <br />
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<a href="http://www.amazon.com/Presidential-Party-Building-International-Perspectives/dp/0691136939/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1437073621&sr=8-1&keywords=Daniel+Galvin">Daniel Galvin</a> has written about presidential party building and noted that Democratic presidents often try to make the party more responsive to the administration by exploiting it when it was useful (ACA) or ignoring it (Trade Promotion Authority) rather than building the capacity of the party. For example, Organizing for America (OFA) was initially kept separate from the DNC and former DNC chairman Howard Dean <a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/democratic-party-machinery-shows-rust-1437439089">suggested</a> that money that could have gone to the DNC was diverted to OFA, which did little to save vulnerable Democrats who supported the ACA in 2010. Furthermore, during his two presidential campaigns and more than six years in office, President Obama <a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/democratic-party-machinery-shows-rust-1437439089">did little to build Democratic strength in congressional and state and local races</a>. <br />
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While President Obama may have been productive, many of his accomplishments are not deeply entrenched and some of the successes have not fully been realized. <a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B0mMGz0Nu3bpYzFjNTgxZTgtNmVjNy00ZmJhLWFkY2UtOWMwMWE3YzFlZWZh/view?authkey=COi_v6EP&ddrp=1&hl=en">Policies can mutate and change especially during the first</a> 10 years and that is certainly a possibility with the ACA. It is not hard to imagine unified Republican control in 2017 with a Republican president and Republican majorities in Congress, and should such a scenario occur it would be much easier to dismantle or significantly reform the ACA without having to rely on budget <a href="https://rule22.wordpress.com/2015/03/18/most-budgets-lack-details-that-doesnt-mean-theyre-ineffective/">reconciliation</a> as Republican congressional majorities are currently contemplating. Absent a party change in the Oval Office, changes and reforms to the ACA remain possible as there is bipartisan support on the Hill to repeal the medical device tax and many Democrats have campaigned on fixing the law. The other major accomplishments of President Obama's administration also face this possibility -- a future president could easily withdraw from the deal with Iran, Congress could stymie additional thawing of relations with Cuba, and many of the regulatory initiatives on environmental regulation could also be overturned by congressional action. Even as the president celebrated the passage of Trade Promotion Authority, there is no guarantee that he will be able to successfully negotiate and pass the Trans-Pacific Partnership. <br />
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President Obama often speaks of the long arc of history, and when it comes to thinking about his presidency it is an apt metaphor. Compared with other reconstructive presidents, the accomplishments of the Obama administration remain uncertain unlike the general acceptance of the New Deal for presidents who followed FDR or the changes during the Reagan administration that were embraced by President Clinton. Many of the major policy initiatives had bipartisan support during those earlier periods while President Obama has depended almost exclusively on Democratic support (TPA excepted) and reflected the heightened levels of polarization in American politics. All presidents have legislative accomplishments, but President Obama neither refashioned the Democratic Party nor moved American politics in a dramatically different direction, so the jury remains out on the exact legacy he leaves behind. <br />
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<i><a href="http://www.uhv.edu/asa/494_323031.htm" target="_blank">Craig Goodman</a> is assistant professor of political science at the University of Houston - Victoria. </i></div>
Seth Maskethttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17178036016555722068noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8925493305476056067.post-12263254598069027942015-07-24T10:00:00.000-04:002015-07-25T06:08:16.895-04:00Many Men, Many Supporters, United in Anger<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<span style="font-size: xx-small;">By John W. Patty</span></div>
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The GOP presidential field is simply stunning in its breadth and the concomitant prevalence of delusion among many candidates and their supporters. There are 15 declared and qualified candidates, plus Donald Trump. The question at hand in this race, for many, is <a href="http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2015/07/2016-election/384828/">what does this lead to</a>? <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/2015/06/24/sorting-through-the-gop-candidates-all-98-so-far.html">How will it sort out</a>? <a href="http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/246778-the-10-republicans-most-likely-to-win-the-gops-2016-nod">Who will win the nomination</a>?<br />
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The more important, and I think easier, question is, "What is this breadth all about?" Partly this is because the GOP is <a href="http://prospect.org/article/gops-2016-demographic-challenge-even-worse-you-thought">not facing particularly awesome prospects for 2016</a>. The demographics are still breaking against the Republicans, and <a href="http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/us-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=791149">Hillary is currently the odds-on favorite</a>. <a href="http://www.jstor.org/stable/2111118?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents">Banks and Kiewiet (1989)</a> provide a very good theory for why candidates challenge strong opponents, but this theory predicts that weak candidates will do so. Scott Walker and Jeb Bush are not weak candidates (which is why they are the leading qualified candidates).<br />
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I think the breadth is about the inchoate nature of the GOP coalition. The simple version of the story is the now well understood divide between the Tea Party and the "establishment" Republicans. But that gets you to only 2, maybe 3, qualified contenders. <br />
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We have <i><b><u>15</u></b></i> qualified contenders.</div>
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The reason for this, as I see it, is that there are a number of tangible <i>objets de la colère</i> (objects of anger) for the GOP base. Obama, Obamacare, Immigrants, Unions, Gay Marriage, Budget Deficits, just to name a few. These are all very different now in a way that wasn't always true. For example, Obama is not really an issue---thanks to the 22nd Amendment. But man, <a href="http://www.gallup.com/poll/181490/obama-approval-ratings-historically-polarized.aspx">he still raises Republican voters' pique</a>. Obamacare, well---it's obviously still an issue, but the Supreme Court has dodged two opportunities to overturn it, putting the onus definitively on the GOP to do the heavy lifting, by which I mean beating something with something rather than with nothing. Scott Walker has <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2015/02/scott_walker_compares_unions_to_isis_the_wisconsin_governor_thinks_fighting.html">fought unions</a>. ...</div>
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I won't continue on a granular level: the point is that the broad and deep slate of GOP candidates reifies the constellation of discord and discontent within part of the GOP's base. To be clear, this type of mutli-faceted cleavage is not unusual in "the opposition"---when a party has been in the wilderness for a sustained period, it is frequently the case that none of the various factions has a sustained and acclaimed position of primacy. </div>
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<i>...But what is unusual is that the GOP has not been in the wilderness. This is the United States, which is based on both separation of powers and federalism---and the GOP has controlled at least one chamber Congress for 6 years and currently controls almost 70% of state legislatures. </i></blockquote>
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The problem for the GOP is that there are so many policies and other issues that are <i>induisant la colère</i> (anger inducing) to their natural electoral base. Simply put, the GOP seems like a party that, at the base, is <u><i>mad</i></u>. Speaker Boehner has dealt with this anger for six years. The Republican National Committee (RNC) is <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-just-got-scolded-by-the-rnc-chairman-reince-priebus-2015-7">now having to deal with it</a> in the guise of a high-profile unqualified "candidate."<br />
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What to make of this? As demonstrated by the craziness of the unqualified GOP candidate's current media frenzy, it is completely reasonable to suppose that the establishment Republicans opened Pandora's box by so clearly, stridently, and unthinkingly aimed at opposing all things coming from the other side of the aisle (<a href="http://thinkprogress.org/politics/2010/10/25/126242/mcconnell-obama-one-term/">arguably, the best recent example of such a stance came from then-Minority Leader and now-Majority Leader Mitch McConnell</a>).<br />
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Succoring anger solicits serious squabbles.</div>
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What does political science say about this? I think it's easy: the GOP as a "national party" focused very narrowly/short-term for the past 6 or so years, and the currently broad, voluble, and volatile field is the price they pay for what probably seemed like a worthwhile bet to block/repeal the Affordable Care Act. That bet didn't pay off, but it's still coming due, and will be paid over the next 3-12 months.</div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com8