When the Supreme Court announced its decision in Citizens United v. FEC in 2010, the
reaction was hyperbolic. The New York Times lead
read:
“The Supreme Court has handed
lobbyists a new weapon. A lobbyist can now tell any elected official: if you
vote wrong, my company, labor union or interest group will spend unlimited sums
explicitly advertising against your re-election.” (NYT, Jan 21, 2010)
In Citizens, the
Supreme upheld the longtime ban on direct campaign contributions from
corporations or unions, but said that these entities could use First Amendment
protections to engage in unlimited speech for or against candidates, as long as
it is remained uncoordinated with campaigns.
Shortly after, the Federal Court ruling in SpeechNow.org v. FEC, in conjunction with the Citizens United ruling, gave rise to what have become known as
“superpacs,” or organizations whose sole purpose is to spend money on behalf of
a candidate or campaign in an independent and uncoordinated way. What
distinguishes a superpac from a regular PAC (political action committee)?
Contributions to superpacs are unlimited, whereas contributions to corporate,
union, and other organizations’ PACs are limited to $5,000.
Independent expenditures were predicted to explode, and they
have. The graph below shows the change
in independent expenditures over the last several election cycles. Clearly, Citizens
United (and SpeechNow) have had
an effect. Note that superpacs account
for about half of all independent expenditures.
Given that President Obama raised about $745 million for his
2008 presidential bid (breaking all previous records), the question of the day
quickly became: what will be the relative difference in candidate and
independent spending in the 2012 elections?
I even went so far as to wonder whether this would be the
first election in history where outside money would surpass what the
candidate’s themselves spent on the election. [Spoiler Alert: it’s not.]
With a little less than two weeks to go, I thought I’d look
at the data. A quick glance at the data
from the Federal Election Commission, nicely summarized by the folks at the
Center for Responsive Politics (opensecrets.org), shows that spending has been
fierce, and it seems
like President Obama again has the edge. Independent expenditures have been
high, but the candidates are doing quite a bit of individual fundraising. President Obama has raised over $500,000,000
for his cause. The graph below shows how
much the candidates have spent (as of Oct. 25, 2012) individually, and the
independent groups for and against them.
It seems like Obama is getting all the attention here.
However, it strikes me that the coding here is odd. Shouldn't we count money spent against Obama as money for Romney, and
vice-versa (money spent against Romney
as being for Obama)? After all, an anti-Romney add, is really a
pro-Obama ad, right?
If we adjust the data for this coding and look at how much
money the candidates and outside groups have spent so far, it looks like this:
And there you have it.
There is a near perfect parity between the candidates. What
Romney lacks in individual campaign contributions, he makes up for with
pro-Romney/anti-Obama independent group spending. And for the liberals who worry that the
President is under undue attack by the conservative superpacs, it turns out he
makes up for it in individual contributions.
It seems to me the edge here is still for Obama for two
reasons. One is that he has more cash on
hand (unspent raised funds) than Romney (about $100 million versus $63 million). The other is that since more of the Obama
money comes from the campaign, the campaign has better control over how it is
spent and where. This allows the
campaign to have better control over messaging and strategy.
I should note that these totals include pro- and anti-Romney
money spent during the primary, so it’s not quite true that there is perfect
parity in the general election financing.
A more detailed analysis of the FEC filings would be needed to parse out
the primary spending; presumably this would also show a slight edge for Obama in
the general election.
Whatever else is said about the fallout from Citizens and Speechnow, it turns out that in the 2012 presidential race the new
rules have resulted in an even fight, from a financing perspective.
**[Author’s Note: I posted this blog entry yesterday,
briefly, and then took it down because of a concern about the correct
interpretation of the data posted on opensecrets.org. I have since verified
that my interpretation is correct.]
I might not be correct on this, but I think one other advantage of Obama's direct contributions is that the campaigns can buy advertising at lower rates than the outside groups. I have seen some stories that talk about the Obama campaign getting better rates because they bought ad time earlier, but the campaign rates vs. group rates seems like a more systematic advantage (as opposed to better planning and strategy by one campaign).
ReplyDeleteIndependent expenditures were predicted to explode, and they have. The graph below shows the change in independent expenditures over the last several election cycles. Clearly, Citizens United (and SpeechNow) have had an effect. Note that superpacs account for about half of all independent expenditures.
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