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Friday, August 7, 2015

A Trumped Up Debate



by Richard Skinner

Image result for "donald trump"
To no one’s surprise, Donald Trump dominated last night’s debate.  But perhaps more surprising was that he spent much of his time clashing with the Fox News moderators.  Even after the debate, he seemed obsessed with Megyn Kelly, who had the nerve to call him on his long history of misogynist comments.  (Like a lot of loud-mouthed provocateurs, Trump has problems with women, both personally and as a candidate).  Despite having no real history as a conservative, Trump has enjoyed a warm relationship with the conservative media, perhaps because he gives them the “affect” that fuels ratings: arrogance, resentment, hostility.  He appeals to the authoritarian and ethnocentric sentiments of the talk-radio audience – essentially, he is the living embodiment of “white male privilege.”  But now he has tangled with the most prominent conservative media outlet of all.  Is Fox News acting as an element in the Republican Party network, trying to purge the race of a toxic candidate?  Maybe.  Is it a great idea for Trump to feud with the media source most trusted by Republican voters?  Not anymore than it was for Joe McCarthy to attack the U.S. Army.  But nobody can censure Trump.

Image result for "donald trump" "megyn kelly"

Trump’s refusal to rule out an independent run could be a double-edged sword.  It might make some Republicans wary of attacking him – while Trump’s ideological incoherence makes predictions difficult, a third-party run by him would probably hurt the GOP more.   But trying to “handle” Trump seems like a fool’s errand.  On the other hand, asking candidates to sign a “loyalty oath” might be a good way for Republicans to keep Trump out of campaign events.  And the Fox moderators repeatedly showed how Trump can be attacked from the Right.

 Image result for "donald trump" "marco rubio"
Public fascination with Trump boosted the Clash in Cleveland’s audience to perhaps the highest ever for a nomination-stage debate.  But Trump so dominated the proceedings that I doubt any other candidate really broke through.  Observers seem to agree that Marco Rubio was the strongest performer.  I’m not sure that he will greatly help his public standing, but his showing probably will assist his campaign make the case to GOP insiders that the Florida senator would be a formidable general-election candidate.  I guess John Kasich started on a good foot with a national audience, but probably in a way that appealed more to the media than to Republican activists.  (But keep in mind that New Hampshire primary voters are more moderate than the GOP norm).  Rand Paul got some attention for wrangling with Chris Christie on foreign policy and surveillance, issues where he disagrees with most Republicans.  He may have helped his cause with his father’s libertarian base, while further alienating the broader party.

Image result for "donald trump" "jeb bush"
The other candidates neither helped nor hurt themselves.  Except for a poorly-thought out response on Iraq, Jeb Bush performed well on substance (including on the hot-button issues of immigration and Common Core), although he seemed surprisingly nervous and low-key for a quasi-frontrunner.  But he risked little and lost nothing.  Scott Walker, the other candidate at the head of the pack, followed an even lower-key path.  Mike Huckabee and Ted Cruz did their usual schticks, and probably pleased their constituencies.  Until the very end, Ben Carson was almost invisible.  Nobody performed badly enough to seriously damage their chances.

Image result for "donald trump" "fox news"
This will go down in history as one of the most entertaining primary debates.  Perhaps it will mark a turning point in the Summer of Trump – when he swerved toward an Independent run, or when the Republican Party began to expel an intruder.  Maybe someday it will be counted as an early step in the march of Marco Rubio to the White House.   But like most debates, whatever effects it may have in the short run will probably dissipate quickly.

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