We Don't Need Any Stinkin' Delegates

In 2008, many political observers expressed concern that the Democratic Party would be split apart due to the protracted primary battle between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, possibly costing them the general election. That obviously didn't happen. Indeed, some, including then-GOP chairman Michael Steele, later credited the lengthy contest with boosting enthusiasm and turnout among the Democratic base. So Republicans sought to change their presidential nomination process for 2012, having states space out their primaries and caucuses to prolong the contest. States that held their contest too early were threatened by the RNC with losing some of their national convention delegates. How did this work out?

According to a recent paper by Caitlin Jewitt, the changes largely failed because the parties in several key states simply refused to delay their contests. Specifically, Florida, Michigan, and Arizona insisted on holding contests in January and February -- against the national party's clear wishes -- compelling the protected early states of Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada to move their contests even earlier. Why didn't Florida, Michigan, and Arizona yield to the threat of being stripped of delegates? As Jewitt says,

For many states, the influence that comes along with an early primary or caucus date is far more important than the number of delegates the state sends to the national convention, which are more like party rallies than places for deliberation and decision in the post-reform era.

Exactly. If you want your state to be influential in the presidential nomination cycle, you basically want a high-profile early primary or caucus featuring lots of debates. You want opportunities for candidates to meet lots of your voters and be forced to make promises to key groups within your state. That ultimately gives you a lot more leverage than having a few dozen delegates at a convention where, in the modern era, no actual deliberation occurs. The logic is pretty sound. The question is, what do national parties do to influence state parties if it turns out delegates aren't that valuable?